Tag: Climate Change Downscaling Techniques

Abstract

The global net-zero transition needed to combat climate change may have profound effects on the energy–food–water–air quality nexus. Accomplishing the net-zero target while addressing other environmental challenges to achieve sustainable development is a policy pursuit for all. Here we develop a multi-model interconnection assessment framework to explore and quantify the co-benefits and trade-offs of climate action for environment-related sustainable development goals in China. We find that China is making progress towards many of the sustainable development goals, but still insufficiently. The net-zero transition leads to substantial sustainability improvements, particularly in energy and water systems. However, the co-benefits alone cannot ensure a sustainable energy–food–water–air quality system. Moreover, uncoordinated policies may exacerbate threats to energy security and food security as variable renewables and bioenergy expand. We urge the implementation of pragmatic measures to increase incentives for demand management, improve food system efficiency, promote advanced irrigation technology and further strengthen air pollutant control measures.

Abstract

Over centuries, European vintners have developed a profound knowledge about grapes, environment, and techniques that yield the most distinguishable wines. In many regions, this knowledge is reflected in the system of wine geographical indications (GI), but climate change is challenging this historical union. Here, we present a climate change vulnerability assessment of 1085 wine GIs across Europe and propose climate-resilient development pathways using an ensemble of biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. Results indicate that wine regions in Southern Europe are among the most vulnerable, with high levels also found in Eastern Europe. Vulnerability is influenced by the rigidity of the GI system, which restricts grape variety diversity and thus contributes to an increased sensitivity to climate change. Contextual deficiencies, such as limited socioeconomic resources, may further contribute to increased vulnerability. Building a climate-resilient wine sector will require rethinking the GI system by allowing innovation to compensate for the negative effects of climate change.

Abstract

Context

The Regional Safe and Just Operating Space (RSJOS), serving as a conceptual framework that supports environmental governance and policy formulation, has garnered growing recognition. However, the application of ecosystem services in the RSJOS framework still constitutes a knowledge gap in the realm of landscape sustainability science.

Objectives

Our objective was to discuss the role of ecosystem services within the Safe and Just Operating Space (SJOS) framework to promote regional sustainability.

Methods

We analyzed the relationship between ecosystem services and the SJOS framework, including their similarities in core concepts and research objectives, as well as how ecosystem services relate to environmental ceilings and social foundations. Based on these analyses, we discussed the potential and challenges of bridging safe space and just space using an ecosystem services approach.

Results

We found that ecosystem services have the potential to help understand the interaction between ecological ceilings and social foundations when assessing RSJOS, using ecosystem service flows to link “safe” and “just” boundaries. However, challenges in applying ecosystem services to assess RSJOS can limit the benefits of this framework.

Conclusions

The examination of RSJOS should extend beyond snapshots of the current regional state and encompass their inherent interconnections and impact mechanisms. This broader perspective can subsequently inform policy decisions. Ecosystem services play a pivotal role in addressing the challenges within the RSJOS framework.

Abstract

Context

The Regional Safe and Just Operating Space (RSJOS), serving as a conceptual framework that supports environmental governance and policy formulation, has garnered growing recognition. However, the application of ecosystem services in the RSJOS framework still constitutes a knowledge gap in the realm of landscape sustainability science.

Objectives

Our objective was to discuss the role of ecosystem services within the Safe and Just Operating Space (SJOS) framework to promote regional sustainability.

Methods

We analyzed the relationship between ecosystem services and the SJOS framework, including their similarities in core concepts and research objectives, as well as how ecosystem services relate to environmental ceilings and social foundations. Based on these analyses, we discussed the potential and challenges of bridging safe space and just space using an ecosystem services approach.

Results

We found that ecosystem services have the potential to help understand the interaction between ecological ceilings and social foundations when assessing RSJOS, using ecosystem service flows to link “safe” and “just” boundaries. However, challenges in applying ecosystem services to assess RSJOS can limit the benefits of this framework.

Conclusions

The examination of RSJOS should extend beyond snapshots of the current regional state and encompass their inherent interconnections and impact mechanisms. This broader perspective can subsequently inform policy decisions. Ecosystem services play a pivotal role in addressing the challenges within the RSJOS framework.

Abstract

This article provides an epistemological assessment of climate analogue methods, with specific reference to the use of spatial analogues in the study of the future climate of target locations. Our contention is that, due to formal and conceptual inadequacies of geometrical dissimilarity metrics and the loss of relevant information, especially when reasoning from the physical to the socio-economical level, purported inferences from climate analogues of the spatial kind we consider here prove limited in a number of ways. Indeed, we formulate five outstanding problems concerning the search for best analogues, which we call the problem of non-uniqueness of the source, problem of non-uniqueness of the target, problem of average, problem of non-causal correlations and problem of inferred properties, respectively. In the face of such problems, we then offer two positive recommendations for a fruitful application of this methodology to the assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies of climate change, especially in the context of what we may prosaically dub “twin cities”. Arguably, such recommendations help decision-makers constrain the set of plausible climate analogues by integrating local knowledge relevant to the locations of interest.

Abstract

This article provides an epistemological assessment of climate analogue methods, with specific reference to the use of spatial analogues in the study of the future climate of target locations. Our contention is that, due to formal and conceptual inadequacies of geometrical dissimilarity metrics and the loss of relevant information, especially when reasoning from the physical to the socio-economical level, purported inferences from climate analogues of the spatial kind we consider here prove limited in a number of ways. Indeed, we formulate five outstanding problems concerning the search for best analogues, which we call the problem of non-uniqueness of the source, problem of non-uniqueness of the target, problem of average, problem of non-causal correlations and problem of inferred properties, respectively. In the face of such problems, we then offer two positive recommendations for a fruitful application of this methodology to the assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies of climate change, especially in the context of what we may prosaically dub “twin cities”. Arguably, such recommendations help decision-makers constrain the set of plausible climate analogues by integrating local knowledge relevant to the locations of interest.

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau faces changing precipitation and environmental conditions affecting alpine ecosystems and downstream freshwater sustainability. While aerosol influence has been highlighted, how human-induced greenhouse warming impacts the plateau’s moisture recycling remains unclear. Here we show that the Tibetan Plateau’s recent precipitation changes result from enhanced precipitation recycling and moisture convergence that offset the decline in monsoon- and westerly-associated moisture transport based on 40-year Lagrangian simulations and water budget analyses. Local evapotranspiration is observed to increase faster in percentage than precipitation, a trend expected to continue in future warming scenarios according to climate projections. Greenhouse gas emission causes widespread wetting while weakening the southerly monsoons across the Himalayas, heightening the sensitivity of precipitation to evapotranspiration and thereby local land surface changes. This trend exacerbates vulnerability in the water cycle of high mountain Asia, calling for proactive management to address potential risks and ensure future water and food security in Asia.

Abstract

The near-term performance efficiency in predicting the dry and wet years in the West African monsoon (WAM) season (May to October) has been studied from 1979 to 2050 using the CRU observational rainfall, NCEP RII atmospheric circulation fields, and CORDEX-Africa outputs in the historical and RCP 8.5 experiments. The dry and wet years from the 6-month SPI at the Western Sudano Sahel (WSS), Eastern Sudano Sahel (ESS), and Guinea Coast (GC) rainfall regions, respectively, have shown consistency in the associated features during such WAM season extremes. The ensemble mean of the historical outputs (1979 to 2005) shows varying simulations of the WAM season; non-significant correlation in rainfall in GC and its overestimation at the three regions, the underestimating (overestimating) of Moisture Flux Convergence (MFC) in the Sahel (GC), and the “non-reasonable” performance by the Kling-Gupta efficiency in simulating the zonal moisture flux in GC and meridional moisture flux in ESS. The bias-correction of the RCP 8.5 outputs has shown improved performance efficiency of the models simulations from 2006 to 2021, however, with the attendant limitations in the technique. The bias-corrected rainfall showed underestimation at all regions although indicating negative significant correlation at the GC (r = -0.33, at 99.9% Confidence level from t-test) whereas the MFC has shown reasonable performance in the GC (KGE = -0.39). However, the ensemble mean of the models presents greater efficiency in projecting the WAM dry and wet years although there are yet huge uncertainties in the projections indicated by the MBE values. The 6-month SPI projections from the improved RCP 8.5 simulation present 2048 to be dry and 2035, 2042 and 2047 to be wet years during the WAM from 2022 to 2050. Noteworthy is the impact of MFC on rainfall being consistent in both the historical and the bias-corrected models’ outputs, having a greater impact by 2050.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the potential risks of climate change across different global warming levels (GWLs). The increasing occurrence of extreme high-temperature events is linked to a warmer climate that is particularly prevalent in the Arabian Peninsula (AP). This study investigates future changes in temperatures and related extremes over AP, under four GWLs, such as 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 3.0 °C, and 4.0 °C, with three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The study uses high-resolution datasets of 27 models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). The results showed that the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 individual models and their multi-model means reasonably captured the extreme temperature events. The summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.11–0.67 °C and 0.09–0.70 °C per decade under the selected SSPs. Likewise, the projected temperature extremes exhibit significant warming with varying degrees across the GWLs under the selected SSPs. The warm temperature extremes are projected to increase, while the cold extremes are projected to decrease under all GWLs and the selected SSPs. Overall, the findings provide a comprehensive assessment of temperature changes over AP in response to global warming, which can be helpful in the development of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Abstract

Raindrop size distribution (DSD) plays a crucial role in enhancing the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimates in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, there is a notable scarcity of long-term, high-resolution observations in this region. To address this issue, long-term observations from a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) were leveraged to refine the radar and satellite-based algorithms for quantifying precipitation in the hinterland of the TP. It was observed that weak precipitation (R<1, mm h⁻¹) accounts for 86% of the total precipitation time, while small raindrops (D<2 mm) comprise 99% of the total raindrop count. Furthermore, the average spectral width of the DSD increases with increasing rain rate. The DSD characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation were discussed across five different rain rates, revealing that convective precipitation in Yangbajain (YBJ) exhibits characteristics similar to maritime-like precipitation. The constrained relationships between the slope Λ and shape μ, D_m and N_w of gamma DSDs were derived. Additionally, we established a correlation between the equivalent diameter and drop axis ratio and found that raindrops on the TP attain a nearly spherical shape. Consequently, the application of the rainfall retrieval algorithms of the dual-frequency precipitation radar in the TP is improved based on the statistical results of the DSD.