Author: Latest Results

The invention of writing on Rapa Nui (Easter Island). New radiocarbon dates on the Rongorongo script

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Abstract

Placing the origin of an undeciphered script in time is crucial to understanding the invention of writing in human history. Rapa Nui, also known as Easter Island, developed a script, now engraved on fewer than 30 wooden objects, which is still undeciphered. Its origins are also obscure. Central to this issue is whether the script was invented before European travelers reached the island in the eighteenth century AD. Hence direct radiocarbon dating of the wood plays a fundamental role. Until now, only two tablets were directly dated, placing them in the nineteenth c. AD, which does not solve the question of independent invention. Here we radiocarbon-dated four Rongorongo tablets preserved in Rome, Italy. One specimen yielded a unique and secure mid-fifteenth c. date, while the others fall within the nineteenth c. AD. Our results suggest that the use of the script could be placed to a horizon that predates the arrival of external influence.

Differences in weight status among Australian children and adolescents from priority populations: a longitudinal study

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Abstract

Background and significance

Australia has a high level of cultural and linguistic diversity, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Children from specific cultural and ethnic groups may be at greater risk of overweight and obesity and may bear the additional risk of socioeconomic disadvantage. Our aim was to identify differences in body-mass index z-score (zBMI) by: (1) Cultural and ethnic groups and; (2) Socioeconomic position (SEP), during childhood and adolescence.

Subjects/Methods

We used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian children (n = 9417) aged 2–19 years with 50870 longitudinal measurements of zBMI. Children were classified into 9 cultural and ethnic groups, based on parent and child’s country of birth and language spoken at home. These were: (1) English-speaking countries; (2) Middle East & North Africa; (3) East & South-East Asia; (4) South & Central Asia; (5) Europe; (6) Sub-Saharan Africa; (7) Americas; (8) Oceania. A further group (9) was defined as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander from self-reported demographic information.

Longitudinal cohort analyses in which exposures were cultural and ethnic group and family socioeconomic position, and the outcome was zBMI estimated using multilevel mixed linear regression models. We stratified our analyses over three periods of child development: early childhood (2–5 years); middle childhood (6–11 years); and adolescence (12–19 years).

Results

Across all three periods of child development, children from the Middle East and North Africa, the Americas and Oceania were associated with higher zBMI and children from the two Asian groups were associated with lower zBMI, when compared to the referent group (English). zBMI was socioeconomically patterned, with increasingly higher zBMI associated with more socioeconomic disadvantage.

Conclusions

Our findings identified key population groups at higher risk of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence. Prevention efforts should prioritize these groups to avoid exacerbating inequalities in healthy weight in childhood.

‘Dead faces laugh’: Medievalist hungers and Irish republican time, 1917-1981

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Abstract

The article analyses the temporal entanglements of personal and historical time through hunger-striking protests in Ireland and their commemoration in medieval imagery, reflecting on the role of medievalism and temporality in nation-building by insurgent agents. Between 1917 and 1981, twenty-two Irish republican paramilitary prisoners undertook hunger strikes to the death for recognition of political status and protest against their prison regimes. While some of these deaths went unremarked by the wider public because of state censorship and lack of support, others catalysed worldwide attention, and succeeded in pitching a compelling national and political narrative for their supporters. The article focuses on how the use of medievalism in examining and commemorating these deaths highlights the vivid temporal collapse between the present of the individual and the past of the nation, and the way this can appeal to the protest’s audience, while making a powerful political bid for the legitimacy of the insurgents’ national narrative. The article examines temporal entanglement both as practiced by the audience of the hunger strikes, from poets such as W.B. Yeats and Seamus Heaney to journalists and scholars, and by the republican community itself, whether by hunger strike survivors, their comrades, or their families, bringing together literary, material, and art historical evidence to show its relevance and pervasiveness. By doing so, the article achieves a study of the ways medievalist temporalities interact with political and personal history, in a bid for the ownership and definition of the nation.

‘Dead faces laugh’: Medievalist hungers and Irish republican time, 1917-1981

Latest Results

Abstract

The article analyses the temporal entanglements of personal and historical time through hunger-striking protests in Ireland and their commemoration in medieval imagery, reflecting on the role of medievalism and temporality in nation-building by insurgent agents. Between 1917 and 1981, twenty-two Irish republican paramilitary prisoners undertook hunger strikes to the death for recognition of political status and protest against their prison regimes. While some of these deaths went unremarked by the wider public because of state censorship and lack of support, others catalysed worldwide attention, and succeeded in pitching a compelling national and political narrative for their supporters. The article focuses on how the use of medievalism in examining and commemorating these deaths highlights the vivid temporal collapse between the present of the individual and the past of the nation, and the way this can appeal to the protest’s audience, while making a powerful political bid for the legitimacy of the insurgents’ national narrative. The article examines temporal entanglement both as practiced by the audience of the hunger strikes, from poets such as W.B. Yeats and Seamus Heaney to journalists and scholars, and by the republican community itself, whether by hunger strike survivors, their comrades, or their families, bringing together literary, material, and art historical evidence to show its relevance and pervasiveness. By doing so, the article achieves a study of the ways medievalist temporalities interact with political and personal history, in a bid for the ownership and definition of the nation.

Healthy together Victoria and childhood obesity study: effects of a large scale, community-based cluster randomised trial of a systems thinking approach for the prevention of childhood obesity among secondary school students 2014–2016

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Abstract

Background

Healthy Together Victoria (HTV) was a Victorian Government initiative that sought to reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity through targeting chronic disease risk factors including physical activity, poor diet quality, smoking, and harmful alcohol use. The intervention involved a boosted workforce of > 170 local-level staff in 12 communities; employed to deliver system activation around health and wellbeing for individuals, families and communities. A cluster randomised trial (CRT) of a systems thinking approach to obesity prevention was embedded within HTV. We present the two-year changes in overweight and obesity and associated behaviours among secondary school students across Victoria, Australia.

Methods

Twenty-three geographically bounded areas were randomised to intervention (12 communities) or comparison (11 communities). Randomly selected secondary schools within each community were invited to participate in the trial in 2014 and 2016. Students in Grade 8 (aged approximately 13–15 years) and Grade 10 (aged approximately 15–16 years) at participating schools were recruited using an opt-out approach across July–September 2014 and 2016. Primary outcomes were body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. Secondary outcomes were physical activity, sedentary behaviour, diet quality, health-related quality of life, and depressive symptoms. Linear mixed models were fit to estimate the intervention effect adjusting for child/school characteristics.

Results

There were 4242 intervention children and 2999 control children in the final analysis. For boys, the two-year change showed improvement in intervention versus control for waist circumference (difference in change: − 2.5 cm; 95% confidence interval [CI]: − 4.6, − 0.5) and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages per day (< 1 serve: 8.5 percentage points; 95% CI: 0.6, 16.5). For girls, there were no statistically significant differences between conditions.

Conclusions

HTV seemed to produce favourable changes in waist circumference and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption for boys, however, no effect on BMI was observed. Although the HTV intervention was cut short, and the period between data collection points was relatively short, the changes observed in HTV contribute to the growing evidence of whole-of-community interventions targeting childhood obesity.

Trial registration

This trial is unregistered. The intervention itself was a policy setting delivered by government and our role was the collection of data to evaluate the effect of this natural experiment. That is, this study was not a trial from the classical point of view and we were not responsible for the intervention.

Modeling future (2021–2050) meteorological drought characteristics using CMIP6 climate scenarios in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

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Abstract

Consistent drought modelling under plausible shared socioeconomic–representative concentration pathways (SSP–RCPs) are crucial for effectively managing future drought risk in agricultural environments. The Western Cape (WC) is one of South Africa’s main agro-based provinces and faces a mounting threat of water insecurity due to recurrent drought. The objective of this study was to predict meteorological drought hazard for 2021–2050 based on three CMIP6 scenarios: SSP5–8.5, SSP2–4.5 and SSP1–2.6. Precipitation simulations generated by the sixth version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6) under the SSP5–8.5, SSP2–4.5 and SSP1–2.6 scenarios were used from fifteen stations across the six AEZs of the WC province. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed at 12-month timescales. Trend analysis of precipitation datasets and the SPI-values were done at p < 0.05 using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The findings revealed negative precipitation trends of − 7.6 mm/year in Ceres, while positive trends of 0.3 mm/year were observed in Malmesbury. These findings indicate an improvement from − 7.8 and − 6.4 mm/year in the same regions, respectively, compared to historical trends observed between 1980 and 2020. The results suggest that in 2042 and 2044, Bredasdorp will experience − 2 < SPI < − 1.5 under the SSP2–4.5 scenarios, while Matroosberg in 2038 under the SSP5–8.5 will experience SPI > − 2. The findings of this study will assist in the development of proactive planning and implementation of drought mitigation strategies and policies aimed at reducing water insecurity in AEZs.

E-Commerce Logistics and Supply Chain Network Optimization for Cross-Border

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Abstract

E-commerce is a growing industry that primarily relies on websites to provide services and products to businesses and customers. As a brand-new international trade, cross-border e-commerce offers numerous benefits, including increased accessibility. Even though cross-border e-commerce has a bright future, managing the global supply chain is crucial to surviving the competitive pressure and growing steadily. Traditional purchase volume forecasting uses time-series data and a straightforward prediction methodology. Numerous customer consumption habits, including the number of products or services, product collections, and taxpayer subsidies, influence the platform's sale quantity. The use of the EC supply chain has expanded significantly in the past few years because of the economy's recent rapid growth. The proposed method develops a Short-Term Demand-based Deep Neural Network and Cold Supply Chain Optimization method for predicting commodity purchase volume. The deep neural network technique suggests a cold supply chain demand forecasting framework centred on multilayer Bayesian networks (BNN) to forecast the short-term demand for e-commerce goods. The cold supply chain (CS) optimisation method determines the optimised management inventory. The research findings demonstrate that this study considers various influencing factors and chooses an appropriate forecasting technique. The proposed method outperforms 96.35% of Accuracy, 97% of Precision and 94.89% of Recall.

More than malware: unmasking the hidden risk of cybersecurity regulations

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Abstract

Cybersecurity investments are made within a complex and ever-evolving environment, where regulatory changes represent a significant risk factor. While cybersecurity regulations aim to minimize cyber risks and enhance protection, the uncertainty arising from frequent changes or new regulations can significantly impact organizational response strategies. This paper explores the determinants and implications of regulatory risks associated with cybersecurity, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of how these risks influence strategic decision-making. The study delves into the suggestion of preventive and mitigative controls that enable businesses to adapt to and mitigate potential disruptions caused by regulatory changes, thereby preserving their established cybersecurity practices. Another key contribution of this study is the introduction of a stochastic econometric model that illustrates how regulatory risks and uncertainties can affect investment behaviors, often prompting a “wait-and-see” stance. This model synthesizes the complex relationship among investment choices, regulatory changes, and cybersecurity risks, providing insights into the dynamic nature of cybersecurity investment strategies. The research findings offer valuable guidance for risk management and strategic planning in cybersecurity investments. By comprehensively understanding the drivers and impacts of regulatory risks, businesses and policymakers can develop more effective risk evaluation and management approaches. This is essential for sustaining a strong cybersecurity posture while navigating the changing regulatory environment.

Intensity of economic relationships: a spatial econometric analysis of regional economic growth in China

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Abstract

Since inter-regional commodity trade within a country can flow freely, the intensity of economic relationships (IER) between regions may affect the level of the regional convergence. This relationship is explored using an extended spatial Durbin model with 1992–2010 prefecture data in China. Two sample cases are conducted for spatial heterogeneity. We find that while the intensity of economic relationships plays little role in regional growth, the spatial lag of the intensity of economic relationships does matter. Further, the positive contribution of IER to regional growth gradually increases over time. In addition, IER has a positive effect on convergence velocity at the prefectural level but a negative effect at the provincial level. The modifiable areal unit problem is addressed with both scale effects (provincial level data are adopted) and zoning effect (two kinds of delineation of the study area); for the latter effect, a case study of Central China with two samples from the central region and the central core region was analyzed using zoning effect tests. Bayesian comparison analysis results support the finding that the data-driven model results are consistent with the theory-driven model. Our conclusions are robust with respect to alternative fixed effects, measurement of intensity of economic relationships, and the choice of the spatial weight matrix, but vary across types of spatial units due to market segmentation.