Author: Latest Results

Rational factionalization for agents with probabilistically related beliefs

Latest Results

Abstract

General epistemic polarization arises when the beliefs of a population grow further apart, in particular when all agents update on the same evidence. Epistemic factionalization arises when the beliefs grow further apart, but different beliefs also become correlated across the population. I present a model of how factionalization can emerge in a population of ideally rational agents. This kind of factionalization is driven by probabilistic relations between beliefs, with background beliefs shaping how the agents’ beliefs evolve in the light of new evidence. Moreover, I show that in such a model, the only possible outcomes from updating on identical evidence are general convergence or factionalization. Beliefs cannot spread out in all directions: if the beliefs overall polarize, then it must result in factionalization.

Process evaluation of a parent-child communication intervention for adolescent sexual and reproductive health in Uganda

Latest Results

Abstract

Background

Previous initiatives concerning adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) education in Low-or-Middle Income Countries (LMICs) have been limited by cultural norms and misinformation perpetuated within families. Responding to the paucity of research on the implementation of SRH interventions in LMICs and limited knowledge regarding their mechanisms, this study undertakes a process evaluation of a parent-focused intervention to promote parent-adolescent communication about SRH in Uganda.

Methods

This paper explores the implementation, contextual factors and mechanisms of impact of the intervention, using the Medical Research Council (MRC) guidelines for process evaluations. Implementation was evaluated through indicators of dose, fidelity and adaptations, acceptability and feasibility. The contextual factors and mechanisms of impact were evaluated to refine the intervention’s causal assumptions. Data was collected during April - October 2021 in South-Western Uganda using a mixed-methods approach, including document analysis, intervention observations, interviews, focus group discussions and most significant change stories.

Results

The acceptability of the intervention was related to its community engagement, the strong rapport with delivery agents, and individual characteristics of participants. Five contextual factors influencing implementation were highlighted; (i) cultural norms, (ii) perceptions about youth SRH, (iii) poverty, (iv) Covid-19 pandemic, and (v) prior research projects in the community. When considering the intervention’s mechanisms of impact, four causal pathways were identified; (i) Awareness of SRH needs helped parents overcome stigma, (ii) Parenting skills training improved SRH communication, (iii) Group learning stimulated shared parenting, and (iv) Group learning improved co-parenting.

Conclusion

The paper presented three key learnings and corresponding recommendations for future research. Firstly, implementation success was credited to meaningful community engagement which improved acceptability and uptake. Secondly, the complex influences of contextual factors highlighted the need for contextual analysis in research studies to inform intervention design. Finally, this evaluation recognised the interplay between mechanisms of impact and suggested further research consider such combined impacts when designing intervention content.

How to depolarize your students

Latest Results

Political polarization leads to distrust. In universities, this can lead to conflict or silence in classes and hinder learning and engagement. Faculty members and leaders can promote depolarization by encouraging constructive dialogue in and out of class, cultivating viewpoint diversity within boundaries and expanding civic spaces.

How to depolarize your students

Latest Results

Political polarization leads to distrust. In universities, this can lead to conflict or silence in classes and hinder learning and engagement. Faculty members and leaders can promote depolarization by encouraging constructive dialogue in and out of class, cultivating viewpoint diversity within boundaries and expanding civic spaces.

Coast and the community: understanding public perceptions towards coastal ecosystems in the Northern Province, Sri Lanka

Latest Results

Abstract

Coastal ecosystems are diverse and provide essential global functions, supporting biodiversity conservation, economic growth, and human welfare. However, they are under threat from human activities such as overexploitation, coastal degradation, and anthropogenic impacts. The present study aimed to explore the level of public awareness and understanding of coastal ecosystems in four coastal cities in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka namely Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, and Mannar. A three-part questionnaire survey was administered to respondents (n = 641) chosen using a systematic sampling method across four coastal cities in the North from April to November 2022. A key highlight from the study is that approximately 75% of the respondents demonstrated significant awareness and knowledge regarding the degradation of the coastal ecosystem in their respective local areas and 81% reported observing an increase in the trend. The influence of social media for awareness was found in nearly half of the respondents followed by mass media (21%). Encouragingly, there is a positive trend among the respondents in recognizing the roles and responsibilities of the government and local community (58%) in addressing coastal ecosystem degradation and promoting conservation efforts. Overall, respondents from Jaffna and Mannar demonstrated a comparatively higher awareness of coastal ecosystems and their degradation than those from Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu. Given their role as transitional zones between terrestrial and marine environments, their intricate socio-ecological dynamics, and the requirement for integrated planning and management strategies, it becomes evident that gaining insight into the level of public awareness of coastal ecosystems is of utmost importance.

Coast and the community: understanding public perceptions towards coastal ecosystems in the Northern Province, Sri Lanka

Latest Results

Abstract

Coastal ecosystems are diverse and provide essential global functions, supporting biodiversity conservation, economic growth, and human welfare. However, they are under threat from human activities such as overexploitation, coastal degradation, and anthropogenic impacts. The present study aimed to explore the level of public awareness and understanding of coastal ecosystems in four coastal cities in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka namely Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, and Mannar. A three-part questionnaire survey was administered to respondents (n = 641) chosen using a systematic sampling method across four coastal cities in the North from April to November 2022. A key highlight from the study is that approximately 75% of the respondents demonstrated significant awareness and knowledge regarding the degradation of the coastal ecosystem in their respective local areas and 81% reported observing an increase in the trend. The influence of social media for awareness was found in nearly half of the respondents followed by mass media (21%). Encouragingly, there is a positive trend among the respondents in recognizing the roles and responsibilities of the government and local community (58%) in addressing coastal ecosystem degradation and promoting conservation efforts. Overall, respondents from Jaffna and Mannar demonstrated a comparatively higher awareness of coastal ecosystems and their degradation than those from Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu. Given their role as transitional zones between terrestrial and marine environments, their intricate socio-ecological dynamics, and the requirement for integrated planning and management strategies, it becomes evident that gaining insight into the level of public awareness of coastal ecosystems is of utmost importance.

Evaluation of Cumulus and Microphysical Parameterization Schemes of the WRF Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Southeastern Brazil

Latest Results

Abstract

Three cumulus and five microphysics parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are the basis for simulating ten specific meteorological events of the Paraíba do Sul River Basin (PSRB) in Southeast Brazil. The cases studied are frontal wave systems, thermodynamic instability, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Each parameterization combination generated 15 simulations for each event, resulting in 150 tests. The primary domain has a horizontal resolution of 8.0 km and the nested 2.6 km resolution. Three analysis tools underlie the study: (i) punctual verification of the first 24 h of precipitation forecast, using the Taylor diagram; (ii) verification of the prediction of precipitation using categorical binary variable and (iii) the Model´s ability to reproduce patterns of the spatial distribution of precipitation. The Taylor diagram suggests that the combination of the Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain–Fritsch schemes produce the best results. The categorical verification indicates that, for dynamic/convective events, the Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain–Fritsch and WRF Double Moment 6–class sets showed the best indices. Some configurations presented reliable results for exclusively convective events, and WRF Single–moment 6–class and Grell–Freitas Ensemble is the best combination. The Morrison Double moment and Multiscale Kain–Fritsch parameterizations yielded the best performance for the spatial distribution. Overall, the schemes tested perform better for the upstream region, i.e., the area of greater water uptake for the basin.

Multidimensional well-being of US households at a fine spatial scale using fused household surveys

Latest Results

Abstract

Social science often relies on surveys of households and individuals. Dozens of such surveys are regularly administered by the U.S. government. However, they field independent, unconnected samples with specialized questions, limiting research questions to those that can be answered by a single survey. The presented data comprise the fusion onto the American Community Survey (ACS) microdata of select donor variables from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) of 2015, the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) of 2017, the American Housing Survey (AHS) of 2019, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey - Interview (CEI) for the years 2015–2019. This results in an integrated microdataset of household attributes and well-being dimensions that can be analyzed to address research questions in ways that are not currently possible. The underlying statistical techniques, designed under the fusionACS project, are included in an open-source R package, fusionModel, that provides generic tools for the creation, analysis, and validation of fused microdata.

Monthly potential evapotranspiration estimated using the Thornthwaite method with gridded climate datasets in Southeastern Brazil

Latest Results

Abstract

We evaluated the performance of the Thornthwaite (ThW) method using two gridded climate datasets to estimate monthly average daily potential evapotranspiration (PET). The PET estimated from two gridded series were compared to PET and to reference evapotranspiration (ETo) determined, respectively, through the ThW and Penman-Monteith model parameterized on Food and Agriculture Organization–Irrigation and Drainage paper No 56 (PM-FAO56) using data from weather stations. The PET by ThM was based on monthly air temperature series (1961–2010) from two gridded datasets (Global Historical Climatology Network-GHCN and University of Delaware-UDel) and 21 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) located in Southeastern Brazil. The ETo PM-FAO56 used monthly climate series (1961–2010) on sunshine duration, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from weather stations of the INMET. The PET estimated using UDel gridded series was better overall performance than the GHCN series. Differences in altitude, latitude, and longitude were the main geographic factors determining the performance of the PET estimates using gridded climate series. Depending on the factors, some locations require bias correction, especially locations more than 10 km away from the grid point. The gridded datasets are an alternative for locations without climatic series data or with low-quality non-continuous data series.

Wind energy potential of weather systems affecting South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province

Latest Results

Abstract

As a percentage of the total global energy supply, wind energy facilities could provide 10% of the total global energy supply by 2050 as reported in IEA World Energy Outlook (2022). Considering this, a just transition to renewable and sustainable energy in South Africa is a genuine possibility if steps are taken immediately to achieve this. The Eastern Cape Province exhibits a strong wind resource which can be exploited towards expediting such a just energy transition. No research and related modelling have, to date, been undertaken in quantifying and relating the detailed P50 energy yield analyses of representative wind energy facilities in temporal and spatial dimensions to the occurrence of specific synoptic types in South Africa. To quantify this energy meteorology climatology for a suitably sized geospatial area in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa (spatial focus area, latitude −30 to −35, longitude 20 to 30), the approach of using self-organising maps is proposed. These maps are used to identify the most common synoptic circulation types occurring in the Eastern Cape and can subsequently be mapped onto an equivalent time resolution wind energy production timeseries calculated based on probable wind energy facility sites. This paper describes comprehensive methodologies used to model the wind energy facilities, calculate with high confidence the P50 energy production, and then identify the predominant synoptic weather types responsible for the wind energy production in this spatial focus area. After quantifying the energy production, running a self-organising map software generates a purposely selected 35 node map that characterises archetypal synoptic patterns over the 10-year period. The synoptic types can be ranked by the highest energy production. It is shown that in this spatial area, monthly wind energy production is higher during the winter months. When the well-established high-pressure cells move northward, synoptic types associated with higher energy production are frequent and include tropical and temperate disturbances across South Africa, patterns resembling a ridging anticyclone off the west coast of South Africa and low-pressure cells occurring to the north and south. Low energy producing patterns show characteristics of the high-pressure cells moving southwards producing fine weather and mildly disturbed conditions. The purpose of this methodology is that it provides the foundation required to derive long-term frequency changes of these synoptic weather systems using global climate model ensembles and thus changes in wind energy production.