“Things fall apart, the center cannot hold”: fractionalized and polarized party systems in Western democracies

Abstract

Jean Blondel made many lasting contributions toward comparative politics, not least in his classification of party systems in Western democracies. Yet during the 5 decades since Blondel’s original contribution, party competition has been transformed by multiple developments, including changes in the grassroots electorate, as intermediary organizations connecting citizens and the state, and at the apex in legislatures and government. Does Blondel’s typology of party systems remain relevant today—or does it require substantial revision? And, does party system fragmentation predict ideological polarization? Part I sets out the theoretical framework. Part II compares trends from 1960 to 2020 in party system fragmentation in a wide range of democracies, measured by the effective number of parties in the electorate and in parliament. Not surprisingly, the effective number of electoral parties (ENEP) has generally grown in each country across Western democracies. This does not imply, however, that party systems are necessarily more polarized ideologically. Part III examines polarization in party systems across Western democracies, measured by standard deviations around the mean of several ideological values and issue positions in each country. The findings suggest that party system fractionalization and polarization should be treated as two distinct and unrelated dimensions of party competition. The conclusion reflects on the broader implications of the findings for understanding party polarization and threats of backsliding in democratic states.

Probabilistic rainy season onset prediction over the greater horn of africa based on long-range multi-model ensemble forecasts

Abstract

This works proposes a probabilistic framework for rainy season onset forecasts over Greater Horn of Africa derived from bias-corrected, long range, multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasts. A careful analysis of the contribution of the different forecast systems to the overall multi-model skill shows that the improvement over the best performing individual model can largely be explained by the increased ensemble size. An alternative way of increasing ensemble size by blending a single model ensemble with climatology is explored and demonstrated to yield better probabilistic forecasts than the multi-model ensemble. Both reliability and skill of the probabilistic forecasts are better for OND onset than for MAM and JJAS onset where forecasts are found to be late biased and have only minimal skill relative to climatology. The insights gained in this study will help enhance operational subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting in the GHA region.

A model output statistic-based probabilistic approach for statistical downscaling of temperature

Abstract

Large-scale temperature projections need to be downscaled to river basin scale to facilitate a regional scale climate change impact assessment. A multi-stage statistical downscaling procedure is proposed in the current study, the first stage captures the climate change signals from the simulations of general circulation models (GCMs) by spatially downscaling the monthly GCM simulations. The second stage disaggregates the spatially downscaled monthly series to a daily scale by a weather generator which adds the regional climatic information into the spatially downscaled time series. A distribution-free post-processing shuffling is finally performed to rebuild the intervariable correlation of downscaled temperatures with regional rainfall which is important in reliable projection of streamflow. The procedure is validated by downscaling the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Bharathapuzha catchment in India for the period 1951–2005. The downscaled series of temperature shows Normalised Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) less than 0.09 and correlation coefficients greater than 0.4. The ability of the procedure in capturing non-stationarity in the climate is also analysed by its performance in different phases of ENSO.

Landscape controls on fuel moisture variability in fire-prone heathland and peatland landscapes

Abstract

Background

Cross-landscape fuel moisture content is highly variable but not considered in existing fire danger assessments. Capturing fuel moisture complexity and its associated controls is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and danger in emerging fire-prone environments that are influenced by local heterogeneity. This is particularly true for temperate heathland and peatland landscapes that exhibit spatial differences in the vulnerability of their globally important carbon stores to wildfire. Here we quantified the range of variability in the live and dead fuel moisture of Calluna vulgaris across a temperate fire-prone landscape through an intensive fuel moisture sampling campaign conducted in the North Yorkshire Moors, UK. We also evaluated the landscape (soil texture, canopy age, aspect, and slope) and micrometeorological (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and windspeed) drivers of landscape fuel moisture variability for temperate heathlands and peatlands for the first time.

Results

We observed high cross-landscape fuel moisture variation, which created a spatial discontinuity in the availability of live fuels for wildfire spread (fuel moisture < 65%) and vulnerability of the organic layer to smoldering combustion (fuel moisture < 250%). This heterogeneity was most important in spring, which is also the peak wildfire season in these temperate ecosystems. Landscape and micrometeorological factors explained up to 72% of spatial fuel moisture variation and were season- and fuel-layer-dependent. Landscape factors predominantly controlled spatial fuel moisture content beyond modifying local micrometeorology. Accounting for direct landscape–fuel moisture relationships could improve fuel moisture estimates, as existing estimates derived solely from micrometeorological observations will exclude the underlying influence of landscape characteristics. We hypothesize that differences in soil texture, canopy age, and aspect play important roles across the fuel layers examined, with the main differences in processes arising between live, dead, and surface/ground fuels. We also highlight the critical role of fuel phenology in assessing landscape fuel moisture variations in temperate environments.

Conclusions

Understanding the mechanisms driving fuel moisture variability opens opportunities to develop locally robust fuel models for input into wildfire danger rating systems, adding versatility to wildfire danger assessments as a management tool.

Impact of Ebola and COVID-19 on maternal, neonatal, and child health care among populations affected by conflicts: a scoping review exploring demand and supply-side barriers and solutions

Abstract

Introduction

Armed conflicts have a severe impact on the health of women and children. Global health emergencies such as pandemics and disease outbreaks further exacerbate the challenges faced by vulnerable populations in accessing maternal, neonatal, and child healthcare (MNCH). There is a lack of evidence that summarizes the challenges faced by conflict-affected pregnant women, mothers, and children in accessing MNCH services during global health emergencies, mainly the Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics. This scoping review aimed to analyze studies evaluating and addressing barriers to accessing comprehensive MNCH services during Ebola and COVID-19 emergencies in populations affected by conflict.

Methods

The search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using terms related to Ebola and COVID-19, conflicts, and MNCH. Original studies published between 1990 and 2022 were retrieved. Articles addressing the challenges in accessing MNCH-related services during pandemics in conflict-affected settings were included. Thematic analysis was performed to categorize the findings and identify barriers and solutions.

Results

Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Challenges were identified in various MNCH domains, including antenatal care, intrapartum care, postnatal care, vaccination, family planning, and the management of childhood illnesses. Ebola-related supply-side challenges mainly concerned accessibility issues, health workforce constraints, and the adoption of stringent protocols. COVID-19 has resulted in barriers related to access to care, challenges pertaining to the health workforce, and new service adoption. On the demand-side, Ebola- and COVID-19-related risks and apprehensions were the leading barriers in accessing MNCH care. Community constraints on utilizing services during Ebola were caused by a lack of trust and awareness. Demand-side challenges of COVID-19 included fear of disease, language barriers, and communication difficulties. Strategies such as partnerships, strengthening of health systems, service innovation, and community-based initiatives have been employed to overcome these barriers.

Conclusion

Global health emergencies amplify the barriers to accessing MNCH services faced by conflict-affected populations. Cultural, linguistic, and supply-side factors are key challenges affecting various MNCH domains. Community-sensitive initiatives enhancing primary health care (PHC), mobile clinics, or outreach programs, and the integration of MNCH into PHC delivery should be implemented. Efforts should prioritize the well-being and empowerment of vulnerable populations. Addressing these barriers is crucial for achieving universal health coverage and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Impact of Ebola and COVID-19 on maternal, neonatal, and child health care among populations affected by conflicts: a scoping review exploring demand and supply-side barriers and solutions

Abstract

Introduction

Armed conflicts have a severe impact on the health of women and children. Global health emergencies such as pandemics and disease outbreaks further exacerbate the challenges faced by vulnerable populations in accessing maternal, neonatal, and child healthcare (MNCH). There is a lack of evidence that summarizes the challenges faced by conflict-affected pregnant women, mothers, and children in accessing MNCH services during global health emergencies, mainly the Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics. This scoping review aimed to analyze studies evaluating and addressing barriers to accessing comprehensive MNCH services during Ebola and COVID-19 emergencies in populations affected by conflict.

Methods

The search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases using terms related to Ebola and COVID-19, conflicts, and MNCH. Original studies published between 1990 and 2022 were retrieved. Articles addressing the challenges in accessing MNCH-related services during pandemics in conflict-affected settings were included. Thematic analysis was performed to categorize the findings and identify barriers and solutions.

Results

Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Challenges were identified in various MNCH domains, including antenatal care, intrapartum care, postnatal care, vaccination, family planning, and the management of childhood illnesses. Ebola-related supply-side challenges mainly concerned accessibility issues, health workforce constraints, and the adoption of stringent protocols. COVID-19 has resulted in barriers related to access to care, challenges pertaining to the health workforce, and new service adoption. On the demand-side, Ebola- and COVID-19-related risks and apprehensions were the leading barriers in accessing MNCH care. Community constraints on utilizing services during Ebola were caused by a lack of trust and awareness. Demand-side challenges of COVID-19 included fear of disease, language barriers, and communication difficulties. Strategies such as partnerships, strengthening of health systems, service innovation, and community-based initiatives have been employed to overcome these barriers.

Conclusion

Global health emergencies amplify the barriers to accessing MNCH services faced by conflict-affected populations. Cultural, linguistic, and supply-side factors are key challenges affecting various MNCH domains. Community-sensitive initiatives enhancing primary health care (PHC), mobile clinics, or outreach programs, and the integration of MNCH into PHC delivery should be implemented. Efforts should prioritize the well-being and empowerment of vulnerable populations. Addressing these barriers is crucial for achieving universal health coverage and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Rational factionalization for agents with probabilistically related beliefs

Abstract

General epistemic polarization arises when the beliefs of a population grow further apart, in particular when all agents update on the same evidence. Epistemic factionalization arises when the beliefs grow further apart, but different beliefs also become correlated across the population. I present a model of how factionalization can emerge in a population of ideally rational agents. This kind of factionalization is driven by probabilistic relations between beliefs, with background beliefs shaping how the agents’ beliefs evolve in the light of new evidence. Moreover, I show that in such a model, the only possible outcomes from updating on identical evidence are general convergence or factionalization. Beliefs cannot spread out in all directions: if the beliefs overall polarize, then it must result in factionalization.

Process evaluation of a parent-child communication intervention for adolescent sexual and reproductive health in Uganda

Abstract

Background

Previous initiatives concerning adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) education in Low-or-Middle Income Countries (LMICs) have been limited by cultural norms and misinformation perpetuated within families. Responding to the paucity of research on the implementation of SRH interventions in LMICs and limited knowledge regarding their mechanisms, this study undertakes a process evaluation of a parent-focused intervention to promote parent-adolescent communication about SRH in Uganda.

Methods

This paper explores the implementation, contextual factors and mechanisms of impact of the intervention, using the Medical Research Council (MRC) guidelines for process evaluations. Implementation was evaluated through indicators of dose, fidelity and adaptations, acceptability and feasibility. The contextual factors and mechanisms of impact were evaluated to refine the intervention’s causal assumptions. Data was collected during April - October 2021 in South-Western Uganda using a mixed-methods approach, including document analysis, intervention observations, interviews, focus group discussions and most significant change stories.

Results

The acceptability of the intervention was related to its community engagement, the strong rapport with delivery agents, and individual characteristics of participants. Five contextual factors influencing implementation were highlighted; (i) cultural norms, (ii) perceptions about youth SRH, (iii) poverty, (iv) Covid-19 pandemic, and (v) prior research projects in the community. When considering the intervention’s mechanisms of impact, four causal pathways were identified; (i) Awareness of SRH needs helped parents overcome stigma, (ii) Parenting skills training improved SRH communication, (iii) Group learning stimulated shared parenting, and (iv) Group learning improved co-parenting.

Conclusion

The paper presented three key learnings and corresponding recommendations for future research. Firstly, implementation success was credited to meaningful community engagement which improved acceptability and uptake. Secondly, the complex influences of contextual factors highlighted the need for contextual analysis in research studies to inform intervention design. Finally, this evaluation recognised the interplay between mechanisms of impact and suggested further research consider such combined impacts when designing intervention content.

How to depolarize your students

Political polarization leads to distrust. In universities, this can lead to conflict or silence in classes and hinder learning and engagement. Faculty members and leaders can promote depolarization by encouraging constructive dialogue in and out of class, cultivating viewpoint diversity within boundaries and expanding civic spaces.

How to depolarize your students

Political polarization leads to distrust. In universities, this can lead to conflict or silence in classes and hinder learning and engagement. Faculty members and leaders can promote depolarization by encouraging constructive dialogue in and out of class, cultivating viewpoint diversity within boundaries and expanding civic spaces.