Municipal perspectives on managed retreat and flood mitigation: A case analysis of Merritt, Canada after the 2021 British Columbia flood disaster

Abstract

In response to the catastrophic flooding that occurred in British Columbia, Canada in November 2021, the City of Merritt is facing a difficult decision about whether to rebuild or not. The developing situation in Merritt provided a unique opportunity to explore the different types of adaptations (i.e., investments in climate resilient infrastructure, rebuilding, construction of structural mitigation, zoning, and buyouts) considered by policymakers in advance of official municipal decisions. Through qualitative mixed methods (e.g., interviews, open houses, town council meetings), the study explored preliminary discussions among decision makers surrounding long term risk reduction options including rebuild and retreat strategies, perceptions of flood risk, recovery challenges faced by small-scale municipalities, the development of the community’s flood mitigation plan, and recommendations for post-disaster transitional supports. The results indicated that communities in the post-disaster recovery phase are considering the use of buyouts as a risk reduction tool amongst broader flood mitigation strategies, however policy constraints and a lack of funding are impeding the implementation of a flood mitigation plan that includes buyouts. The findings suggest that decisions about post disaster recovery are often independent of broader municipal climate change adaptation plans instead focusing on short-term risk reduction mechanisms. Additionally, transitional supports including interim housing need to be accounted for in recovery planning. Governments in Canada can capitalize on the policy windows during the post-disaster recovery stage and learn from municipalities about the challenges and opportunities in the design and implementation of flood mitigation plans that can help to improve disaster policy.

Verbal Repertoires and Contextual Factors in Cultural Change

Abstract

This article provides an overview of cultural environmental factors that influence interactions between organized cultural groups and the recipients of their aggregate outcome. The discussion highlights the elaborated account of metacontingency with the primary focus on ways this perspective offers points of entry to alter contextual factors and change cultural practices. The concepts of metacontingency, macrobehavior, macrocontingency, and cultural milieu are emphasized in the behavior scientific analysis of cultural practices. In this process, interactions of verbally sophisticated cultural groups, the aggregate outcome, and their influence on the cultural environment will be examined. Moreover, the mediating role of verbal repertoires of individuals will be discussed.

Verbal Repertoires and Contextual Factors in Cultural Change

Abstract

This article provides an overview of cultural environmental factors that influence interactions between organized cultural groups and the recipients of their aggregate outcome. The discussion highlights the elaborated account of metacontingency with the primary focus on ways this perspective offers points of entry to alter contextual factors and change cultural practices. The concepts of metacontingency, macrobehavior, macrocontingency, and cultural milieu are emphasized in the behavior scientific analysis of cultural practices. In this process, interactions of verbally sophisticated cultural groups, the aggregate outcome, and their influence on the cultural environment will be examined. Moreover, the mediating role of verbal repertoires of individuals will be discussed.

Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy

Abstract

The identification of agriculture and land use configurations that achieve net zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions is critical to inform appropriate land use and food policy, yet national NZ targets lack consistent definitions. Here, 3000 randomised scenarios projecting future agricultural production and compatible land use combinations in Ireland were screened using ten NZ definitions. When aggregating carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions using various methods, 1–85% of scenarios met NZ criteria. Despite considerable variation, common actions emerged across definitions, including high rates of afforestation, organic soil re-wetting, and cattle destocking. Ambitious technical abatement of agricultural emissions moderated, but could not substitute, these actions. With abatement, 95th percentile milk output varied from 11–91% of 2021 output, but was associated with reductions of up to 98% in suckler-beef production, and a 47–387% increase in forest cover. Achieving NZ will thus require transformation of Ireland’s land sector. Lagging land use change effects require urgent action, but sustaining a just transition will require visioning of future NZ land use combinations supporting a sustainable and resilient food system, alongside an expanding circular bioeconomy. We provide new insight into the sensitivity of such visioning to NZ definitions, pointing to an urgent need for international consensus on the accounting of methane emissions in NZ targets.

Downscaling atmospheric emission inventories with “top–down” approach: the support of the literature in choosing proxy variables

Abstract

The management and improvement of air quality are global challenges aimed at protecting human health and environmental resources. For this purpose, in addition to legislative and scientific indications, numerous tools are available: measurement methods and tools for estimating and forecasting. As a collection of data presenting an emission of a pollutant (to air), emission inventories support the knowledge of sources impacting air quality by estimating atmospheric emissions within a specific (wide or limited) reference area. There are several methodological approaches for their definition, which can be classified into bottom–up or top–down methods. This paper aims to review the methodological approaches described in the literature that apply the top–down approach for the disaggregation of atmospheric emissions with high spatial and temporal resolution. The proxy variables used to apply this approach are identified, as well as the spatial and temporal resolution obtained by the authors. The results show that population density and land use are the most common parameters with respect to most of the emission sources and for numerous atmospheric pollutants. The spatial resolution of the disaggregation described in the literature varies from a few hundred metres to several kilometres, in relation to the territorial extension of the study areas. The results of the review help support the selection of the best and most popular proxy variables used to scale emissions inventories.

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of vegetation cover variations in the Chengdu-Chongqing region of China under the background of rapid urbanization

Abstract

The research on the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of ecosystems in rapidly urbanizing regions has always been a topic of widespread concern. As the fourth pole of China’s economic development, the research on the Chengdu-Chongqing region has reference significance for the urbanization process of developing countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa.The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been widely applied in studies of plant and ecosystem changes. Based on MODIS NDVI data from 2001 to 2020 and meteorological data of the same period, this study reveals the evolution of NDVI in the Chengdu-Chongqing region from three aspects: the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of NDVI, the prediction of future trends in vegetation coverage, and the response of vegetation to climate change and human activities. During the period of plant growth, the mean NDVI achieved a value of 0.78, and the vegetation coverage rate is increasing year by year. According to the Hurst index, the future NDVI in Chengdu-Chongqing region will tend to decrease, and its trend is opposite to that of the past period of time. The Chengdu-Chongqing region vegetation positively affected by human activities is greater than those negatively affected, and in terms of vegetation degradation, the impact of human activities is greater than climate change.

Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya

Abstract

The complex topography of the Himalayan region makes it difficult to analyze its climatic variables over the region. The study has been carried out to identify the trends in climate variables and drought analysis over the Beas River basin in the western Himalayas. To understand the impact of changing climate on the Beas River basin, five downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were used, namely BNU-ESM, Can-ESM2, CNRM CM5, MPI-ESM MR, and MPI-ESM LR. These GCMs were obtained for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: 4.5, which represents the normal scenario, and 8.5, which represents the most extreme scenario for anticipated concentrations of carbon and greenhouse gases. The multi-model ensemble (MME) of these 5 GCMs were used to project rainfall and temperature. Further Innovative Trends Analysis (ITA) and modified Mann–Kendell (mMK) trend tests have been used for trend analysis at a 5% significance level. The drought pattern in the future timescale of the ensembled model is calculated using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for both RCPs. The ITA, Mann–Kendell, and Sen’s slope trends showed decreased precipitation under RCP 4.5 in the Manali region and showed an increasing trend for the remaining locations under both scenarios. Furthermore, SPI values showed frequent droughts under both RCPs. The study outcomes will serve as a scientific foundation for the sustainability of water resources and agricultural output in arid inland regions vulnerable to changing climate.

The EU’s discourse coherence and its relationship with China: a new normative actor?

Abstract

This article examines the role of the European Union (EU) as a global actor and its relationship with China. Within the context of the current European discourse, the study delves into the EU’s role as a normative actor and the increasing challenges it faces in its interactions with China. Consequently, the article describes how, in specific facets of this relationship, the EU, through its inconsistencies in discourse, engenders a potential perception of ambivalence and vulnerability on the international stage. Therefore, the argument put forth posits that the EU’s aspiration to propagate liberal norms and principles has rendered the formulation of an appropriate foreign policy towards China difficult, as manifested by the inconsistent rhetoric employed by its highest-ranking representatives. This discord reflects the intricate task of balancing the interests of the diverse member states, thereby unveiling a fragmented EU grappling with the China predicament while attempting to sustain its normative endeavors. By employing a concept-theoretical approach, the analysis results contribute to a novel comprehension of how the EU adapts its position as a global actor in response to the adversarial nature of China, emphasizing points of discursive incongruities and interest for future research in EU-China partnerships.

Curriculum wars and youth political education in the UK and Australia—a narrative review

Abstract

This paper discusses the questions at the heart of the tussle between different types of knowledge within curricula that we conceptualise as ‘curriculum wars’. Across the world, we see increasing instances of young people’s radicalization around axes of race, religion, and gender. Viewing these developments side by side throws into question the various local, national, and global issues shaping young people’s political education and action in liberal democracies experiencing ongoing shift away from liberal values. Through a comprehensive narrative review, we provide an overview of key themes that have been explored in recent research on curriculum, youth political education, and democracy in England and Australia. We find that young peoples’ shift away from traditional electoral (big ‘P’) politics focussed on wider socio-economic issues to an individualised (small ‘p’) politics focussed on personal experiences poses serious curricular challenges—around content and modes of political education. Young peoples’ unparalleled access to online information and digital affordances creates further need to include digital and media education within the political education curriculum. This educational challenge could prospectively be met by a curriculum that is collaborative, action-research and activist based. Such a curriculum addresses issues relevant to young people’s lived realities including topics deemed ‘controversial’ for classrooms. Such an approach requires a perspectival shift away from youth as subjects of curricular reform to youth as collaborators and knowledge workers. We argue that critical literacy offers a practical and theoretical scaffold to conceptualise transformative and progressive youth political education and political action by emphasizing the need for socially justice focussed spaces for learning, reflection and action within schools and in communities.

Relationship between systematic temperature bias and East Asian winter monsoon in CORDEX East Asia phase II experiments

Abstract

This study analyzed systematic biases in surface air temperature (SAT) within Far East Asia during the boreal winter using the SNURCM and WRF regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia phase II. The SAT biases were examined in relation to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The models consistently simulated lower winter temperatures over East Asia, particularly in the Manchuria (MC) region, compared to the observation, showing a positive correlation with the EAWM. This study assessed the models' ability to capture EAWM variability and revealed relationships between SAT biases and discrepancies in low-level and near-surface EAWM conditions. The findings emphasized the value of analyzing extreme monsoon years, with the RCMs exhibiting larger cold SAT biases during strong EAWM years. Systematic biases in sea-level pressure contrast and lower-level winds over the MC region were evident during years with a robust monsoon. The overestimation of low-level winds during strong EAWM years contributed to increased cold advection, affecting the MC region. These systematic errors are influenced by the internal factors of the model, such as the physics parameterization schemes, rather than large-scale circulation forced by the reanalysis data (perfect boundary condition). These results provide insights for model improvements, understanding EAWM dynamics, and call for investigation of processes in the planetary boundary layer and coupled air-sea interaction.