Author: Latest Results

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid region of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

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Abstract

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid region in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations, limited access to precipitation data, and significant water scarcity. Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region, which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling. This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)) and a reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset (ERA5-Land)) in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations. Based on this assessment, we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging (DBMA) approach, the expectation-maximization method, and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method. The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibits distinct spatiotemporal variability, with an outstanding performance, as indicated by low root mean square error (RMSE=1.40 mm/d) and high Person’s correlation coefficient (CC=0.67). Compared with the traditional simple model averaging (SMA) and individual product data, although the DBMA-fused precipitation data are slightly lower than the best precipitation product (CMFD), the overall performance of DBMA is more robust. The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final (IMERG-F) precipitation product, as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin, further demonstrate the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region. Our results showed that the proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid regions, and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid region of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Latest Results

Abstract

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid region in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations, limited access to precipitation data, and significant water scarcity. Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region, which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling. This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)) and a reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset (ERA5-Land)) in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations. Based on this assessment, we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging (DBMA) approach, the expectation-maximization method, and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method. The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibits distinct spatiotemporal variability, with an outstanding performance, as indicated by low root mean square error (RMSE=1.40 mm/d) and high Person’s correlation coefficient (CC=0.67). Compared with the traditional simple model averaging (SMA) and individual product data, although the DBMA-fused precipitation data are slightly lower than the best precipitation product (CMFD), the overall performance of DBMA is more robust. The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final (IMERG-F) precipitation product, as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin, further demonstrate the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region. Our results showed that the proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid regions, and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Symphony of sustainability: how technology similarity impacts international trade patterns in environmental goods

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Abstract

The global consensus on sustainable development and environmental cooperation has prompted the promotion of trade in environmental goods (EGs) for green growth. This study delves into the diversity of EGs trade patterns, using decomposed environmental technology similarity indicators to reveal the technological drivers. Linking innovation indicators to trade performance in EGs provides new insights into the determinants of inequality in environmental governance cooperation. Based on an extended gravity model, we empirically analyze their impact on bilateral EGs trade flows among 176 countries over the period 2002–2019. The study finds that (1) the global EGs trade network presents a “core-periphery” structure, with increased network density and participation of developing countries. (2) Technology similarity contributes significantly to EGs trade. Compared to competition, technology complementarity has a greater impact on EGs trade flows. (3) The influence of technology similarity varies across trade patterns and product complexity explains the mechanisms, with technology complementarity promoting more trade in high-complexity products, mainly concentrated in the trade from Northern countries, while technology competition greatly promotes the export of low-complexity products from the South. (4) Technology similarity helps to overcome information barriers in EGs trade, and its trade-enhancing effects exhibit geographical regionalization. The findings offer empirical evidence on the technological drivers of EGs trade and provide policy implications for fostering inclusive global environmental governance and enhancing the competitive advantages of Southern countries, fostering more opportunities for green growth.

Fake marriages, asylum, and gas station robberies: institutional determinants of migrants’ strategies

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Abstract

I study institutional and political determinants of migrants’ immigration strategies using the United States’ immigration system as a case study. Drawing from work that theoretically connects decisions to immigrate legally vs. illegally as well as theoretical insights from literature on the economics of crime, I show how relative probabilities of successful migration using different strategies and relative utility gained using different strategies weigh heavily in immigrants’ calculus. To do so, I use qualitative evidence of migrant strategies in the face of migration policy constraints. These various policy constraints lead to a variety of different tactics revolving around decisions regarding whether to immigrate legally, to commit visa fraud, or to choose one type of visa over another. In the process, I also build on a rich body of Public Choice literature to demonstrate how complicated regulatory systems, in this case regulatory systems that quantitatively restrict migration, encourage rent-seeking by both migrants and nonmigrants.

Regulating Sovereign-Driven Investments in International Trade and Investment Agreements: The Role of Investment Screening Mechanisms

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Abstract

The cross-border economic activity of sovereign investors has been increasing over the last decades. This proved vital in an international economy wrecked by financial, economic, health and other crises. The chapter highlights the two main design principles governing sovereign-driven investments in international trade and investment agreements: first, ownership-neutrality that is conditioned on the commercially-driven nature of a sovereign investment; second, the sovereign power of the host state to regulate market access of foreign (sovereign) investors. The open-ended nature of these principles has allowed for a major—and ongoing—change in the structure of the contemporary international economic law regime. The change has been spearheaded by the introduction of Investment Screening Mechanisms. Investment Screening Mechanisms move the focus from international to domestic law. They may also be bringing about a re-interpretation of the permissibility of foreign sovereign investments in international trade and investment agreements.

Integrated geospatial approach for adaptive rainwater harvesting site selection under the impact of climate change

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Abstract

The impact of global climate change on water resources is a pressing concern, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, where water shortages are becoming increasingly severe. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) offers a promising solution to address these challenges. However, the process of selecting suitable RWH sites is complex. This paper introduces a comprehensive methodology that leverages various technologies and data sources to identify suitable RWH locations in the northern region of Iraq, considering both historical and future scenarios. The study employs remote sensing and geographic information systems to collect and process geospatial data, which are essential for the site selection process. AHP is utilized as a decision-making tool to assess and rank potential RWH locations based on multiple criteria, helping to prioritize the most suitable sites. The WLC approach is used to combine and weigh various factors, enabling a systematic evaluation of site suitability. To account for the uncertainty associated with future climate conditions, a stochastic weather generator is employed to simulate historical and future precipitation data for period (1980–2022) and (2031–2100). This ensures that the assessment considers changing climate patterns. Historical precipitation values ranged from 270 to 490 mm, while future projections indicate a decrease, with values varying from 255 to 390 mm. This suggests a potential reduction in available water resources due to climate change. The runoff for historical rainfall values ranged from 190 mm (poor) to 490 mm (very good). In the future projections, runoff values vary from 180 mm (very poor) to 390 mm (good). This analysis highlights the potential impact of reduced precipitation on water availability. There is a strong correlation between rainfall and runoff, with values of 95% for historical data and 98.83% for future projections. This indicates that changes in precipitation directly affect water runoff. The study incorporates several criteria in the model, including soil texture, historical and future rainfall data, land use/cover, slope, and drainage density. These criteria were selected based on the nature of the study region and dataset availability. The suitability zones are classified into four categories for both historical potential and future projections of RWH zones: very high suitability, covering approximately 8.2%. High suitability, encompassing around 22.6%. Moderate suitability, constituting about 37.4%. Low suitability, accounting for 31.8% of the study region. For the potential zones of RWH in the future projection, the distribution is as follows: very high suitability, approximately 6.1%. High suitability, around 18.3%. Moderate suitability, roughly 31.2%. Low suitability, making up about 44.4% of the study region. The research's findings have significant implications for sustainable water resource management in the northern region of Iraq. As climate change exacerbates water scarcity, identifying suitable RWH locations becomes crucial for ensuring water availability. This methodology, incorporating advanced technology and data sources, provides a valuable tool for addressing these challenges and enhancing the future of water management to face of climate change. However, more investigations and studies need to be conducted in near future in the study region.

Operationalizing ambiguity in sustainability science: embracing the elephant in the room

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Abstract

Ambiguity is often recognized as an intrinsic aspect of addressing complex sustainability challenges. Nevertheless, in the practice of transdisciplinary sustainability research, ambiguity is often an ‘elephant in the room’ to be either side-stepped or reduced rather than explicitly mobilized in pursuit of solutions. These responses threaten the salience and legitimacy of sustainability science by masking the pluralism of real-world sustainability challenges and how research renders certain frames visible and invisible. Critical systems thinking (CST) emerged from the efforts of operational researchers to address theoretical and practical aspects of ambiguity. By adapting key concepts, frameworks, and lessons from CST literature and case studies, this paper aims to establish (1) an expansive conceptualization of ambiguity and (2) recommendations for operationalizing ambiguity as a valuable means of addressing sustainability challenges. We conceptualize ambiguity as an emergent feature of the simultaneous and interacting boundary processes associated with being, knowing, and intervening in complex systems, and propose Reflexive Boundary Critique (RBC) as a novel framework to help navigate these boundary processes. Our characterization of ambiguity acknowledges the boundary of a researcher’s subjective orientation and its influence on how ambiguity is exposed and mediated in research (being), characterizes knowledge as produced through the process of making boundary judgments, generating a partial, contextual, and provisional frame (knowing), and situates a researcher as part of the complexity they seek to understand, rendering any boundary process as a form of intervention that reinforces or marginalizes certain frames and, in turn, influences action (intervening). Our recommendations for sustainability scientists to operationalize ambiguity include (1) nurturing the reflexive capacities of transdisciplinary researchers to navigate persistent ambiguity (e.g., using our proposed framework of RBC), and (2) grappling with the potential for and consequences of theoretical incommensurability and discordant pluralism. Our findings can help sustainability scientists give shape to and embrace ambiguity as a fundamental part of rigorous sustainability science.

Centring Indigenous peoples in knowledge exchange research-practice by resetting assumptions, relationships and institutions

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Abstract

Knowledge exchange is a broad and consequential undertaking, analysed by diverse scholars, and rapidly growing as a field of academic practice. Its remit is to strengthen ties between research generators and users to support better material outcomes for society. This review paper considers how this increasingly codified academic field might engage with the research-practice concerns identified in the Indigenous and decolonial literature. We do so by bringing the two literature sets together for analysis, noting they are not mutually exclusive. We reveal how addressing discrimination towards Indigenous peoples from within the knowledge exchange field requires a fundamental reconsideration of the biases that run through the field’s structures and processes. We prioritise two connected framing assumptions for shifting—jurisdictional and epistemological. The first shift requires a repositioning of Indigenous peoples as political–legal entities with societies, territories, laws and customs. The second shift requires engagement with Indigenous expert knowledge seriously on its own terms, including through greater understanding about expert knowledge creation with nature. These shifts require taking reflexivity much further than grasped possible or appropriate by most of the knowledge exchange literature. To assist, we offer heuristic devices, including illustrative examples, summary figures, and different questions from which to start the practice of knowledge exchange. Our focus is environmental research practice in western Anglophone settler-colonial and imperial contexts, with which we are most familiar, and where there is substantial knowledge exchange literature.

Public Health, Visual Rhetoric, and Latin America: Steinbeck’s The Forgotten Village

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Abstract

This essay analyzes the visualization of Euro-American medicine and indigenous healing in John Steinbeck’s 1941 documentary-drama The Forgotten Village. The movie juxtaposes film and medical discourse as exemplifications of modern, visual culture by showing excerpts from hygiene films and foregrounding medical imagery (e.g., bacteria cultures). The film displaces indigenous medicine by privileging a Euro-American medical model, and the gaze of oppression is perpetuated through humanitarian medical intervention. In short, disease is not simply a material fact but embedded in discourses about community identity, moral values, and politics.

‘The Wind of Change’: a rhetorical political analysis of Harold Macmillan’s 1960 ‘decolonization’ speech

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Abstract

This article contributes to the literature on Conservative Party politics through an exploration of the political rhetoric of former Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader, Harold Macmillan in relation to decolonization and the end of empire. Macmillan’s Wind of Change speech has been analysed in the existing literature as purely a historical moment in relation to imperial decline. This article contends that Macmillan’s arguments for and defence of decolonisation in fact remain relevant for modern understandings of contemporary Conservative Party politics because residual affections for imperialism remain within some conservative audiences, as well as the ongoing processes of decolonisation. He sought to address such sentiments at the time of delivery, yet they remain today amongst similar audiences who remain committed to imperial notions. As such, simply considering the speech as a historic moment is inadequate given its value as an enduring argument relevant to contemporary conservative debates. Because of the language and justification used, I re-evaluate the speech through the process of ‘Rhetorical Political Analysis’ (ethos, pathos, logos). By doing so, I will demonstrate how Macmillan’s historical speech remains relevant as a living argument for scholars and practitioners of Conservative Party politics, which is a perspective presently absent in the scholarship. This methodological approach is also augmented by an analysis of archival materials helping to shed light on the embeddedness of the speech within the broader context of the tumultuous South African politics of the time, and by doing so show why a speech delivered in the 1960s remains relevant to UK domestic policy, foreign policy, and conservative studies in the 2020s.