Integrated hydrological modelling and streamflow characterization of Gangotri Glacier meltwater

Abstract

Runoff from glaciated catchments is an integrated process that includes glacier melt, snowmelt, rainfall and surface and subsurface runoff of meltwater from glacierized and non-glacierized areas. Monitoring and quantifying the contribution of the hydrologic components (snow, ice and rain) to river discharge in the Himalayan basins is essential for decision-making in the water sector, particularly in water resources management and flood risk reduction in the region. An attempt has been made to characterize and hydrologically model streamflow (Bhagirathi River) for the Gangotri Glacier (Central Himalaya, India). A semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model is used for the streamflow modelling and assessing the major streamflow components (snow melt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff). Initially, the model was calibrated using the available in situ hydro-meteorological records for the ablation seasons of 2013–14 to 2015–16 (3 years), and further validated for the ablation seasons of 2016–17 to 2018–19 (3 years). The model performed well for all the studied years except for some months, where abrupt changes in the contrasting weather parameters (precipitation and temperature) were recorded. In the Gangotri Glacier Valley (upper Bhagirathi River catchment), snowmelt contributed the largest portion (55.5%) to total streamflow followed by glacier melt (29.7%) and rainfall runoff components (14.7%).

Exploring corporate reputation and crisis communication

Abstract

Corporate reputation, the collective perception of company attractiveness towards stakeholders, impacts business outcomes, while effective communication strategies play a critical role in shaping and maintaining the reputation. The role of communication is highlighted during crises, crisis communication being a strategic approach to managing and mitigating the impact of unexpected or adverse events on the reputation, operations, and stakeholders. These concepts are deeply interrelated with interactive marketing. This study explores the dynamics of corporate reputation and crisis communication during a recent global crisis by combining a literature review, opinion mining, and classification analysis. This is because stakeholders rely on various information sources and engage in online discussions, which can impact the reputation, and pose new challenges. The opinion mining analysis draws from the media communication of selected stock-listed companies during a crisis. The key findings shed light on the dynamics of corporate reputation and crisis communication and the impacts on interactive marketing. Critical components of crisis communication are identified to include monitoring, tactics of responding, and response management. Linkages between these, crisis communication theories, and corporate reputation are synthesised. Indications are provided on how the crisis can affect the corporate reputation and the significance of the speed of preventive communication measures.

‘Pain free if I ever will be’: lived experience of workers seeking care for pain attributed to musculoskeletal disorders

Abstract

Background

Pain attributed to musculoskeletal disorders are a significant hinderance to work ability and economic growth, especially in developing countries. Quality of life and lived experience of workers with musculoskeletal disorders have not been explored enough to determine whether person-centred care is provided. There is a wealth of evidence for using the biomedical approach in the management of workers with musculoskeletal disorders, which has proved ineffective in reducing absenteeism and symptoms experienced by workers. The purpose of this study was to explore the lived experience of workers seeking care for musculoskeletal disorders and how their pain attitudes and beliefs influenced their experience.

Methods

A qualitative approach with thematic analysis was used. Purposive sampling was used to recruit six participants for semi-structured interviews. All participants were either experiencing pain attributed to a musculoskeletal disorder or had received care for a musculoskeletal disorder.

Results

Pain attitudes and beliefs of workers with a musculoskeletal disorder and healthcare professionals greatly influenced the care and recovery process of musculoskeletal disorders. There is a primary biomedical lens informing care of workers with musculoskeletal disorders received. Workers expect healthcare professionals to explore their concerns further, but the focus of care for most participants was their presenting complaint. There is also a need for the autonomy of workers to be preserved, and communication between healthcare professionals and workers with musculoskeletal disorders needs to improve.

Conclusions

Many stakeholders are involved in the recovery process from musculoskeletal disorders. There is a need for a biopsychosocial informed practice to improve return-to-work (RTW) in workers with musculoskeletal disorders. Change is needed at all healthcare system levels to reduce the negative experiences of workers and maladaptive pain beliefs that is associated with persisting symptoms and extended absenteeism.

Projected Changes in Southeast Asian Sea Surface Characteristics Using CMIP6 GCMs

Abstract

Changing ocean properties threaten coastal communities and ecosystems worldwide. This study projected possible future changes in major sea surface attributes, including sea surface height (SSH), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface temperature (SST) across the Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) using Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We employed Quantile Mapping (QM) to bias correct model outputs at the resolution of 0.25° considering the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 (ORAS5) data as the reference. The study identified four GCMs (CMCC-CM2-SR5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, and NorESM2-MM) reliable for replicating observed sea surface characteristics. The bias-corrected top-performing GCMs revealed an increase in SSH ranging from 6 to 8 cm across most regions of SEAS during 1975–2014. The multimodel ensemble mean (MMEs) of the selected GCMs projected a 5–40 cm rise in sea level in most SEAS regions, with the most significant increases in the southern Gulf of Thailand and northern Peninsular Malaysia. Salinity and temperature projections show regional variations, with some areas seeing increases in salinity, and others may experience declines in the near future, with a significant decrease in far-future projections. The most concerning finding is the projected rise in sea surface temperature (up to 4.2 °C) in the Gulf of Thailand and the Strait of Malacca, potentially impacting marine ecosystems and fisheries. These findings highlight the urgency of robust adaptation plans to safeguard coastal communities and ecosystems from the multifaceted challenges of a warming climate.

Malaria transmission risk is projected to increase in the highlands of Western and Northern Rwanda

Abstract

Malaria is one of the major health threats in Africa, and the risk of transmission is projected to be exacerbated by global warming. Rwanda experienced an 11-fold increase in malaria incidence from 2011 to 2015 despite extensive funding and implementation of control measures. Here, we focus on Rwanda as a case study and simulate monthly malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, employing an ensemble learning method. Next, we project future malaria prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We find that the projected increases in temperature and precipitation may shift malaria transmission risk to the highlands of western and northern Rwanda. These two regions that currently experience low malaria transmission. The seasonal effects of malaria incidence may be less apparent from January to June, and the peak season for malaria transmission in the highlands could occur one month earlier. Our findings highlight the impacts of climate change on malaria epidemics in Rwanda, which have implications for other world regions.

The impact of COVID-19 on the debate on open science: a qualitative analysis of published materials from the period of the pandemic

Abstract

This study is an analysis of the international debate on open science that took place during the pandemic. It addresses the question, how did the COVID-19 pandemic impact the debate on open science? The study takes the form of a qualitative analysis of a large corpus of key articles, editorials, blogs and thought pieces about the impact of COVID on open science, published during the pandemic in English, German, Portuguese, and Spanish. The findings show that many authors believed that it was clear that the experience of the pandemic had illustrated or strengthened the case for open science, with language such as a “stress test”, “catalyst”, “revolution” or “tipping point” frequently used. It was commonly believed that open science had played a positive role in the response to the pandemic, creating a clear ‘line of sight’ between open science and societal benefits. Whilst the arguments about open science deployed in the debate were not substantially new, the focuses of debate changed in some key respects. There was much less attention given to business models for open access and critical perspectives on open science, but open data sharing, preprinting, information quality and misinformation became most prominent in debates. There were also moves to reframe open science conceptually, particularly in connecting science with society and addressing broader questions of equity.

What’s the Future for Science in the New Zealand Curriculum?

Abstract

This commentary article considers the current contentious debates over the national school science curriculum in Aoteaora New Zealand. The co-authors of this commentary are members of a group of science teacher educators and science education researchers who met recently to discuss concerns over aspects of these debates in the context of a wider political contest over the control and direction of education policy.

The challenging concept of eradication: A core concept guiding and frustrating public health

Abstract

The celebrated 1980 announcement that smallpox had been eradicated was made using the following definition of eradication: “Permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts: intervention measures are no longer needed.” Public health around the world works with this definition of “eradication,” setting it as a goal for other infectious disease control programs. The definition is simple. Its application, however, has produced long-running and complex public health campaigns that threaten the commitment of funders, health care providers, and governments. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the disease-specific challenges of eradication through the example of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). While many deem eradication worth its high costs because it is the end of morbidity and mortality from a disease, it does not mean the end of disease control efforts. Public health must be prepared for the possibility of disease reoccurrence in the form of undetected natural reservoirs of disease, lab leaks from stored samples, bioterror attacks using stolen samples, and the synthetic recreation of microbes. This paper clarifies the role of reoccurrence prevention in eradication, calling for its addition in the definition of eradication.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes

Abstract

Purpose of Review

Climate change has profoundly impacted the Earth's atmospheric system and altered the terrestrial water cycle, reshaping the spatiotemporal patterns of hydrological extremes, including floods and droughts. This review aims to summarize recent advancements in understanding the response of hydrological extremes to climate change in both past and future.

Recent Findings

Historical floods driven by heavy rainfall are increasing, while those dominated by snow processes are decreasing, resulting in non-significant changes on a global average. Previously overestimated droughts, due to inaccuracies in hydrological modules within offline diagnostic metrics, have been corrected by advanced modeling results, also revealing minimal historical changes on a global scale. Earth system simulations project concurrent increases in both floods and droughts under future climate change scenarios.

Summary

Climate change influences hydrological extremes across various scales, with diverse spatial distributions and underlying mechanisms. Decision-makers should integrate multi-source information to enhance the monitoring and adaptation of hydrological extremes, particularly focusing on abrupt drought-flood alternations.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes

Abstract

Purpose of Review

Climate change has profoundly impacted the Earth's atmospheric system and altered the terrestrial water cycle, reshaping the spatiotemporal patterns of hydrological extremes, including floods and droughts. This review aims to summarize recent advancements in understanding the response of hydrological extremes to climate change in both past and future.

Recent Findings

Historical floods driven by heavy rainfall are increasing, while those dominated by snow processes are decreasing, resulting in non-significant changes on a global average. Previously overestimated droughts, due to inaccuracies in hydrological modules within offline diagnostic metrics, have been corrected by advanced modeling results, also revealing minimal historical changes on a global scale. Earth system simulations project concurrent increases in both floods and droughts under future climate change scenarios.

Summary

Climate change influences hydrological extremes across various scales, with diverse spatial distributions and underlying mechanisms. Decision-makers should integrate multi-source information to enhance the monitoring and adaptation of hydrological extremes, particularly focusing on abrupt drought-flood alternations.