From crisis to prevention: mining big data for public health insights during the flint water crisis

Abstract

This study investigates the utility of Google Trends and Google Search data in retrospectively analyzing the Flint Water Crisis, a significant public health event. By examining keywords relevant to the crisis, such as “lead,” “bottled water,” “water filters,” “pneumonia,” and “Legionnaires’ Disease,” we aimed to uncover patterns in public awareness and response during a public crisis and explore how such awareness and responses could potentially aid in reducing the risk of similar crises in the future. Our analysis reveals a clear correlation between search frequencies and the crisis timeline, with spikes in search terms corresponding to key events. This suggests that such data can serve as a valuable tool for understanding public sentiment and behavior in the face of environmental disasters. The research underscores the potential of “Big Data,” led by search engines and social media platforms, in shaping public policy and informed decision-making. However, it also addresses the limitations and challenges in using these data sources, including issues of data consistency, replicability, and the influence of sociocultural contexts on search behaviors. The study advocates for the combined use of Google Trends and Google Search data, complemented by other datasets, for a more comprehensive understanding of public engagement in environmental crises. This work contributes to the growing field of infodemiology, emphasizing the importance of big data analysis in environmental science and public health research.

Barriers to correct pronoun usage in healthcare settings

Abstract

Background

Using correct pronouns is an impactful way to establish affirming environments for transgender and nonbinary (TGNB) patients. However, physicians often report struggling with this.

Objective

This study set out to conduct an initial root cause analysis of factors contributing to medical students and physicians failing to use TGNB patients’ correct pronouns.

Methods

A 10-item Qualtrics survey was sent to medical students, residents, and physicians practicing in Central Ohio. Participants were asked to describe perceived challenges or barriers colleagues have regarding correctly using TGNB patients’ correct pronouns. A directed content analysis of participant responses was performed utilizing a fishbone diagram root cause analysis tool as a basis for conceptualizing and categorizing barriers. All coding was completed by independent reviewers utilizing a consensus reconciliation methodology.

Results

Of 928 survey respondents, 763 met the study inclusion criteria, of which 453 provided analyzable responses. Of these 453, attendings with five or more years of practice (32.5%) and medical students (27.4%) made up the two largest demographic categories. 1.7% of respondents identified as transgender, nonbinary, and/or genderqueer, and 64% identified as heterosexual/straight. Five core barrier categories were identified: documentation, patient care, environment, knowledge, and individuals. Sub-categories were also identified, including lack of documentation, discomfort, medical culture, lack of standardization, prejudice, and assumptions.

Conclusion

The study identifies important barriers to medical professionals correctly using TGNB patients’ pronouns. The root cause analysis conducted as part of this study demonstrates the necessity of multi-pronged, system-level interventions to support ensuring TGNB patients are addressed using the correct pronouns.

Nuclear safeguards during crises: three scenarios of restricted access to nuclear interim storage facilities

Abstract

Safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) play a pivotal role in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Over the years, the IAEA’s safeguards system has adapted to technological advancements and changing political landscapes, making it more resilient and flexible. This adaption is not only the result of programmes aiming at preparing and foreseeing future challenges in the nuclear field but also the result of several crises that have occurred over the last decades, including attempts to break non-proliferation commitments and limited access to facilities. The aim of this article is to explore what could be done in an event of unavoidable crises, with a focus on interim nuclear storage facilities where the continuity of knowledge is broken, and a quick and relatively reliable response is needed. We conducted a scenario-based workshop with multidisciplinary experts with different backgrounds working in the area of peace and conflict research. The workshop simulated three scenarios: (1) a terrorist occupation, (2) a flood, and (3) a mismatch of information following a coup d’état. This workshop revealed insights into crisis management strategies, data sampling, and the relevance of formal and informal interpersonal networks.

Taking the public seriously: the role of respect in interactions between scientific experts and lay publics

Abstract

The way we engage with each other in science matters. While some ways of engaging may facilitate interactions, others may hinder them. Trust has been identified as one of the central factors facilitating collaborations between scientific communities and lay communities, and respect has been pointed to as having a central role to play in building and maintaining this trust. But what should respecting others in the interactions between scientific and lay communities involve? What does cultivating respect involve in this context? This paper aims at addressing these questions. In particular, it focuses on the role and nature of respect in the interactions between healthcare providers and patients in order to develop an analysis of the different types of respect and their relative importance in collaborations between scientists and lay publics. Overall, we will argue that understanding the complexity of respect dynamics may help to act appropriately in scientific experts-lay people interactions.

AI-empowered next-generation multiscale climate modelling for mitigation and adaptation

Abstract

Earth system models have been continously improved over the past decades, but systematic errors compared with observations and uncertainties in climate projections remain. This is due mainly to the imperfect representation of subgrid-scale or unknown processes. Here we propose a next-generation Earth system modelling approach with artificial intelligence that calls for accelerated models, machine-learning integration, systematic use of Earth observations and modernized infrastructures. The synergistic approach will allow faster and more accurate policy-relevant climate information delivery. We argue a multiscale approach is needed, making use of kilometre-scale climate models and improved coarser-resolution hybrid Earth system models that include essential Earth system processes and feedbacks yet are still fast enough to deliver large ensembles for better quantification of internal variability and extremes. Together, these can form a step change in the accuracy and utility of climate projections, meeting urgent mitigation and adaptation needs of society and ecosystems in a rapidly changing world.

Comparative analysis of hydro-metrological drought under global warming in middle Awash River basin, Ethiopia, case study of Kesem sub-basin

Abstract

This study analyzed long-term hydro-metrological drought under climate change in the Kesem sub-basin, Middle Awash basin, Ethiopia. The comparative analysis was employed using three drought indices (the streamflow drought index, standard precipitation index, and reconnaissance drought index). These indices were evaluated using the ordinal by ordinal Spearman’s correlation, interval by interval Pearson, and kappa measure of agreement. The three drought indices have statistically significant (α < 0.01) strong correlation (> 0.78) and degree of agreement (0.2 fair agreement to 0.8 near-perfect agreement) tested at 99% confidence  interval. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimation shows an increase of + 25.9 mm (1.6%) from the base period to RCP 4.5 (2020) and + 26.7 mm (1.67%) to RCP 8.5 (2020), and + 55 mm (3.4%) to RCP 4.5 (2050) and + 56.8 mm (3.5%) to RCP 8.5 (2050). This increase in PET is an indication that the watershed is very susceptible to water deficit and drought in the coming periods. Mild to extreme hydro-metrological drought was experienced during the baseline period (1984–2010) and is projected to occur in the current (2011–2044) and future (2045–2075) periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios at 6- and 12-month timescales. Droughts will likely become more frequent in the future in the study area. Currently, extreme droughts that last 6 and 12 months occur every 13 to 19 years. Under the RCP 4.5, these droughts could happen every 6–7 years by 2050. The RCP 8.5 suggests even more frequent extreme droughts every 14 years. These findings are substance information for the water users and development works in the basin including the Kesem dam reservoir.

Decent deepfakes? Professional deepfake developers’ ethical considerations and their governance potential

Abstract

Policymakers and societies are grappling with the question of how to respond to deepfakes, i.e., synthetic audio-visual media which is proliferating in all areas of digital life– from politics to pornography. However, debates and research on deepfakes’ impact and governance largely neglect the technology’s sources, namely the developers of the underlying artificial intelligence (AI), and those who provide code or deepfake creation services to others, making the technology widely accessible. These actors include open-source developers, professionals working in large technology companies and specialized start-ups, and for deepfake apps. They can profoundly impact which underlying AI technologies are developed, whether and how they are made public, and what kind of deepfakes can be created. Therefore, this paper explores which values guide professional deepfake development, how economic and academic pressures and incentives influence developers’ (perception of) agency and ethical views, and how these views do and could impact deepfake design, creation, and dissemination. Thereby, the paper focuses on values derived from debates on AI ethics and on deepfakes’ impact. It is based on ten qualitative in-depth expert interviews with academic and commercial deepfake developers and ethics representatives of synthetic media companies. The paper contributes to a more nuanced understanding of AI ethics in relation to audio-visual generative AI. Besides, it empirically informs and enriches the deepfake governance debate by incorporating developers’ voices and highlighting governance measures which directly address deepfake developers and providers and emphasize the potential of ethics to curb the dangers of deepfakes.