Month: September 2024

Estimating future changes in streamflow and suspended sediment load under CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections: a case study of Bitlis Creek, Turkey

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Abstract

The Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, which spans Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, is one of the most vulnerable zones to climate change. This study quantifies the impacts of changing climate on streamflow and suspended sediment load rates in the most threatened highlands region of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, with the case of Bitlis Creek. In this evaluation, the multi-model ensemble approach is utilized to produce precipitation and temperature projections by analyzing the simulation performances of 24 global circulation models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to estimate future streamflow and suspended sediment load rates over 25-year periods under the medium- and high-forcing shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results illustrate that the mean annual streamflow and suspended sediment load rates are expected to decrease by up to 8.5 and 21.4% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and by up to 20.9 and 40.7% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. The projected shift from snowy to rainy winters leads to significant increases in winter streamflow and suspended sediment load rates, anticipated to reach 39.1 and 73.5%, respectively, during the 2075–2099 period for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In contrast, declines in spring streamflow and suspended sediment load rates are projected to reach 40.9 and 60.0%, respectively, during the same period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These results suggest that the riparian countries should incorporate adaptive measures into their water resources management plans to ensure a sustained water supply in the coming decades.

A Review of Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Demand and Supply – A Detailed Analysis of Trends, Evolution, and Future Research Directions

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Abstract

Climate change presents significant challenges to the demand and availability of irrigation water, resulting in profound consequences for the long-term viability of development that can be sustained. This study utilized a thorough bibliometric analysis to examine the patterns, development, and possible future research paths in this crucial field. The investigation, conducted using 2,211 documents from the Scopus database, demonstrated a steady and rising trajectory in publications. This pattern indicates the growing importance of this subject matter and its worldwide focus. The results emphasized the various topics and subjects investigated, such as climate modeling, water resource management, agricultural practices, and policy consequences. The study identified significant works, industrious nations, institutions, authors, and patterns of collaboration and occurrence. Thematic evolution maps and factorial analyses have identified new research areas, including incorporating advanced technologies like remote sensing, machine learning, and the Internet of Things. Additionally, there is a focus on developing adaptation techniques to improve resilience. Proposed future research areas highlight the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration, integrated modeling frameworks, and holistic approaches to effectively tackle the complex difficulties arising from climate change’s impact on water demand and availability.

Assessment of climate change impact on surface water resources in the Mitidja plain, Algeria

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Abstract

The scarcity of surface water resources has a significant impact on Mediterranean basin. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Mitidja plain in Algeria. Two pre-calibrated monthly water balance models, namely, the GR2M model and the abcd model, were used. These models were driven by bias-corrected datasets from the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). The combined Box–Cox transformation and bootstrapping procedure was used to aggregate the multiple runoff projections generated. The results revealed significant variations in the runoff patterns across the different sub-basins. In addition, all scenarios indicated a reduction in projected runoff across all sub-basins of the Mitidja plain, spanning from 26 to 74.32%. Furthermore, CMIP6 simulations showed more intense changes over the Mitidja basin.

Hydrological response to climate change in Baro basin, Ethiopia, using representative concentration pathway scenarios

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Abstract

Droughts and floods are common in the Baro basin and climate change may exacerbate them. This study aimed to investigate the hydrological response to climate change’s impact in the Baro River basin. Four climate models namely, Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), Max Planck Institute Earth System Model—Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), Coupled Model Version 5, Medium Resolution (CM5A-MR) and European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) dynamically downscaled outputs were obtained from Africa coordinated regional downscaling experiment program. The four climate models were evaluated using a suite of statistical measures such as bias, Root Mean Squared Error, and Coefficient of Variation. The bias of the simulated rainfall varies between − 4.20% and − 25.39% suggesting underestimation. The performance of the models differs subject to the performance measures used for evaluation. Before being used in the climate impact analysis, the climate model data was heavily skewed and needed correction. In terms of bias, HadGEM2-ES performed the worst while EC-Earth performed the best. MPI-ESM-LR was the worst performer in terms of RMSE and CM5A-MR was the best. Changes in the hydrological response to climate change were compared to the baseline scenario (1971–2000) under the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCP 4.5) for the medium term (2041–2070). The GCM predictions for the RCP 4.5 scenarios suggested that, in the medium period (2041–2070) the maximum temperature in the Baro River basin will probably rise by 2.1 °C for MPI-ESM-LR and 2.49 °C for CM5A-MR, while the minimum temperature would likely climb by 1.7 °C to EC-Earth and 2.8 °C for HadGEM2-ES. Annual rainfall is expected to fall by 7.02% for CM5A-MR and 17.01% for HadGEM2-ES, while annual evapotranspiration potential is likely to rise. Except from March to May CM5A-MR consistently generated the greatest amount of streamflow change, while MPI-ESM-LR consistently generated the highest magnitude of streamflow change. The annual streamflow reduction is consistent with the annual precipitation reduction and increased annual potential evapotranspiration. Generally, climate change is predicted to have a significant impact on the hydrological response in the Baro River basin under the RCP 4.5 scenario.

How tourists ‘escaping the heat’ may drive future increases in municipal water demand in Oregon coastal communities

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Abstract

Little is known about the effect of future weather and climate on municipal water demand in coastal communities with tourist-centric economies. To address this knowledge gap, we used an econometric model of monthly water demand that allowed for non-linear responses to weather variables to estimate temperature-response functions for demand from a sample of communities in the Oregon Mid-Coast. A main result is that local temperature was not a significant driver of variability in monthly water demand but that temperature in the Willamette Valley—the source of most tourists to the Oregon coast—was. We assumed that the increase in demand in response to higher Willamette Valley temperature arose from an increase in tourists escaping the heat in the Willamette Valley for cooler conditions on the coast. Applying the temperature response functions to scenarios of future climate to the year 2070 led to projected increases in water demand independent of other factors. Whether future tourism is either constrained by the local resident population that serves tourism or is constrained by the potential tourist population in the Willamette Valley, the climate-change contribution to projected water demand is generally of comparable magnitude to—if not greater than—the contribution from resident population change alone over the next 50 years. For communities where the population is projected to decline, the climate effect may more than offset the effect of declining population, resulting in a net positive change in demand.

Projected changes in the frequency of compound hot and dry events over Tropical Brazil in CORDEX-CORE simulations

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Abstract

Under global warming, extreme events have been increasing in the last decade and are projected to increase in the future with every increment of global warming. The potential increase in compound drought and hot events may induce a complex web of impacts on societies, ecosystems, and economies, including crop failure, wildfires, and water scarcity. This is particularly concerning for Brazil, where it has been demonstrated to be vulnerable to recent extreme climate events. Using an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations over Tropical Brazil, we investigate changes in compound events in response to changes in radiative forcing and their impact on climate extreme events, including drought and extreme heat. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Each model covers the period from 1980 to 2100 under two Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 21st-century projection period. We used observed data from the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD) to evaluate the simulations and perform a quantitative assessment of areas affected by these compound events during the present day. The study finds a generally good agreement between RCM simulations and observed data, with moderate to high correlation coefficients for precipitation, though the strength of these correlations varies across different regions and seasons. The analysis emphasizes the prevalence of compound climate events during the Austral summer season and projects a significant increase in both extreme heat and drought events in the coming decades. These findings underscore Brazil’s vulnerability to compound climate events, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions to mitigate the socio-economic and environmental impacts across various sectors.

A qualitative study of knowledge, beliefs and misinformation regarding COVID-19 in selected districts in Zimbabwe

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Abstract

Background

Lack of appropriate knowledge, incorrect beliefs and misinformation misleads people about the risks they face and how best to protect themselves. A study was conducted to explore the knowledge, beliefs and misinformation regarding COVID-19 in Zimbabwe.

Methods

A qualitative study was conducted in September-October 2022 with a purposive sample of religious leaders, women leaders, youth leaders, health workers, village health workers, teachers, traditional healers, transporters, and the general population selected from ten sites across the country. In total there were 128 participants (30 key informants and 98 focus group discussion participants). At each site, 3 key informant interviews and one homogenous focus group discussion were conducted using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussion guides, respectively. The data were recorded on audiotapes, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English. Manual thematic analysis of the data was performed.

Findings

Three themes were identified in this study: (1) beliefs about COVID-19, (2) knowledge about COVID-19 (knowledge of origin, definition, transmission, signs and symptoms and recommended preventive measures), and (3) misinformation about COVID-19 (regarding its nature, existence and recommended preventive measures). There was awareness of the origin, transmission, signs and symptoms of COVID-19 among the participants. Participants reported that Zimbabwean communities were conversant with public health measures such as maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, and maintaining hand hygiene. However, misinformation was also observed to have circulated among the communities.

Conclusion

Participants demonstrated good knowledge of COVID-19. However, the misinformation circulating in the country calls for the government to establish structures to monitor the legitimacy of information coming through different sources and invest in providing information through trusted sources. In any disease outbreak, the government should engage its citizenry to understand their knowledge, beliefs and any misinformation that might influence adherence to disease preventive measures.

An assessment of Ghana’s pilot of the RTS,S malaria vaccine implementation programme; 2019–2021: a retrospective study

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Abstract

Background

In May 2019, Ghana piloted the introduction of RTS,S malaria vaccine into routine immunization in 42 districts of seven of the 16 regions. The RTS,S malaria vaccine implementation programme (MVIP) post-introduction evaluation (PIE) conducted in Ghana, assessed the immunization system as well as healthcare worker and caregiver experiences during the phase-one rollout but was less expressive on quantitative grading of the respective thematic areas of the vaccine introduction plan. Given the utility of summary statistics in programme evaluation and communication, this follow-up study aimed to provide an overall rating of the country's performance regarding the MVIP .

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted from 10th January to 5th February 2024. It involved review of records to assess key thematic areas of the national MVIP plan, using a study tool adapted from the WHO New Vaccine Introduction (NVI) checklist. A composite score ranging from zero to 100 per cent was generated to assess the country's overall performance regarding introduction of the malaria vaccine, rated on a Likert scale as comprehensive, good, fair, and poor.

Results

The overall performance in the MVIP was rated 78.9% (30/38) corresponding to a grading of “good” on the Likert scale. Performance indicators under thematic areas including policy, national coordination mechanisms, waste management, health worker training, and pharmacovigilance were completely achieved. However,  some weaknesses were exhibited in areas such as financial consideration, cold chain, logistics, and vaccine management, and monitoring and evaluation.

Conclusion

Ghana’s MVIP demonstrated remarkable strengths worth leveraging  to improve the national immunization programme. The weaknesses observed in some of the thematic areas present opportunities to engage key immunization partners and stakeholders towards aligning efforts to ensure a more robust expansion phase. The lessons from the MVIP may be relevant to areas introducing malaria vaccine irrespective of the product type—RTS,S or R21.

Towards gender-transformative metrics in seed system performance measurement: insights for policy and practice in Sub-Sahara Africa

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Abstract

Context

Food insecurity in Sub-Sahara Africa hinges on addressing salient gender inequities within the seed system. While efficient seed system promises reduced systemic inefficiencies to fast-track seed delivery to the smallholder farmers, a dearth of standardized industry metrices to understand the intersectionality of seed system and gender issues exist. Specifically, metrices on guaranteed seed access, reach, benefit, women’s empowerment and ultimate transformation of women, youth and vulnerable people’s livelihoods are less understood. The existing metrices are aggregated at very high levels and limit the ability of policymakers and industry stakeholders to effectively address gender-based inequities for an optimized seed system.

Objective

Our objective is to challenge the status quo industry metrics used by seed industry players and apply a gender framework that strikes a balance between the needs of women, youth and vulnerable peoples in the system, vis-a-vis the need of public, private, and civil society actors. Therefore, the study seeks to evaluate how seed system metrics can be effectively tailored to address gender gaps for enhanced agricultural productivity and food security in Sub-Sahara African context. It also refines the proposals of Kennedy and Speilman and introduce gender-specific metrices that may hold promise to address women and youth’s challenges within the seed system.

Methods

A systemic review of current industry metrices was conducted and the newly developed reach, benefit, empower and transform (RBET) framework was applied to synthesize the responsiveness of current seed industry indicators on gender issues. Online databases and repositories with key search words that returned 204 results including some gray literature.

Results and conclusion

Using common bean seed system as an illustration, the study found critical gaps in measuring seed industry performance, innovation, structure, seed registration and quality control, intellectual property rights using the reach, benefit, empower and transform approach. Thus, a set of gender responsive indicators was suggested to address gender and inclusive matrices that the seed industry often neglects. Using the reach, benefit, empower and transform approach we have included gender responsive indicators meant to close existing gender gaps. Some of these indicators addressed include women participation, trait preferences, seed packaging sizing, seed system leadership, decision-making capacities, labor intensity/drudgery and use of digital platforms such as point-of-sale tracking systems to reach last mile farmers among others.

Significance

This study uses the newly–developed Reach, Benefit, Empower, and Transform (RBET) Framework together with the already existing Spielman–Kennedy framework. It is timely to inform policymaking process on seed system design, to enhance seed industry performance monitoring, and provide practitioners with the knowledge and missing links in efforts to align the seed system's performance with gender outcomes in a measurable manner.

Global citizenship identity mediates the relationship of knowledge, cognitive, and socio-emotional skills with engagement towards global issues

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Abstract

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a unified framework to address interconnected global issues, emphasizing the need for collective action across all sectors of society to achieve a sustainable future for all. In this paper, we empirically investigate how knowledge (awareness of global issues), cognitive skills (critical inquiry), and socio-emotional skills (cognitive empathy) relate to engagement towards global issues, and whether global citizenship identification mediates these relationships. Mediation analysis of data from 249 participants revealed that both awareness of global issues and cognitive empathy directly predict higher engagement levels. In contrast, no direct effect of critical inquiry was observed. Global citizenship identification significantly mediated the relationships between all three predictors and engagement: accounting for 70.7% of the effect of critical inquiry, 39.9% of the effect of awareness, and 33.6% of the effect of cognitive empathy. Our findings highlight that global citizenship identification plays a crucial role in translating knowledge and skills into active engagement. The results highlight the potential effectiveness of identity-based interventions in fostering more engaged communities and advancing efforts toward achieving the SDGs.