Month: September 2024
Assessment of seven different global climate models for historical temperature and precipitation in Hatay, Türkiye
Abstract
Global climate models are important tools for estimating the possible future impacts of climate change and developing necessary adaptation strategies. This study assessed the suitability of global climate models for local climate projections in Hatay, Türkiye. Temperature and precipitation data from different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models were compared with ground-based observations. For stations lacking historical data, multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks were used to generate data. These networks were trained with data from neighboring stations from 1980 to 2014. The most suitable global climate model was determined using a multi-criteria decision-making approach. As a result of the study, it was determined that the multilayer perceptron models effectively generated long-term temperature data with a normalized root mean square error of less than 0.50. Precipitation estimates, while less accurate, achieved reasonable accuracy with a normalized root mean square error of less than 0.70. The evaluation of global climate models revealed a tendency to underestimate minimum temperatures and overestimate maximum temperatures and precipitation. Specifically, the EC-EARTH3, CMCC-ESM2, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models excelled in maximum temperature estimations; the CMCC-ESM2, GFDL-CM4, and TAIESM1 models were superior for minimum temperatures; and the EC-EARTH3, GFDL-CM4, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models performed best for precipitation. The findings of this study will provide a framework for the assessment and selection of appropriate climate models for local regions and will help to develop targeted adaptation strategies.
Assessment of species migration patterns in forest ecosystems of Tamil Nadu, India, under changing climate scenarios
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical factor driving shifts in the distribution of dominant tree species within various forest ecosystems, including evergreen, deciduous, and thorn forests. These shifts pose significant threats to biodiversity and the essential ecosystem services that forests provide. In Tamil Nadu, India, where forest ecosystems are integral to both ecological balance and local livelihoods, there is an urgent need to predict potential changes in species distributions under future climate scenarios to inform effective conservation strategies. This study addresses this need by utilizing the MaxEnt species distribution model to assess the habitat suitability of dominant tree species in these forest types. The analysis spans current conditions (baseline period 1985–2014) and future projections (2021–2050) under the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario, leveraging bioclimatic variables at a 1 km resolution. Key climatic factors such as annual mean temperature, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation seasonality were identified as major drivers of habitat suitability, particularly in the Eastern and Western Ghats of Tamil Nadu. Model projections suggest a potential decrease in suitable habitat area by 32% for evergreen species and 18% for deciduous species, whereas thorn forest species might experience a 71% increase in suitable area. These findings underscore the critical need for targeted conservation actions to mitigate anticipated habitat losses and bolster the resilience of these vital forest ecosystems in the face of ongoing climate change.
Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa
Abstract
Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR > 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.
Perspectives on virtual interviews and emerging technologies integration in family medicine residency programs: a cross-sectional survey study
Abstract
Background
During the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, in-person interviews for the recruitment of family medicine residents shifted to online (virtual) interviews. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) to gather the ideas about virtual interviews of family medicine applicants (interviewees), and faculty and staff who interviewed these applicants (interviewers), and (2) to describe interviewers’ and interviewees’ opinions of use of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR) in the recruitment process as well as during clinical practice.
Methods
This was a cross-sectional survey study. Participants were both interviewers and candidates who applied to the McGill University Family Medicine Residency Program for the 2020–2021 and 2021–2022 cycles.
Results
The study population was constituted by N = 132 applicants and N = 60 interviewers. The response rate was 91.7% (55/60) for interviewers and 43.2% (57/132) for interviewees. Both interviewers (43.7%) and interviewees (68.5%) were satisfied with connecting through virtual interviews. Interviewers (43.75%) and interviewees (55.5%) would prefer for both options to be available. Both interviewers (50%) and interviewees (72%) were interested in emerging technologies. Almost all interviewees (95.8%) were interested in learning about AI and VR and its application in clinical practice with the majority (60.8%) agreeing that it should be taught within medical training.
Conclusion
Although experience of virtual interviewing during the COVID-19 pandemic has been positive for both interviewees and interviewers, the findings of this study suggest that it will be unlikely that virtual interviews completely replace in-person interviews for selecting candidates for family medicine residency programs in the long term as participants value aspects of in-person interviews and would want a choice in format. Since incoming family medicine physicians seem to be eager to learn and utilize emerging technologies such as AI and VR, educators and institutions should consider family physicians’ needs due to the changing technological landscape in family medicine education.
How can advocates leverage power to advance comprehensive regulation on ultra-processed foods? learning from advocate experience in Argentina
Abstract
Background
The use of corporate power to undermine public health policy processes is increasingly well understood; however, relatively little scholarship examines how advocates can leverage power to promote the successful adoption of public health policies. The objective of this paper is to explore how advocates leveraged three forms of power – structural, instrumental and discursive – to promote the passage of the Promotion of Healthy Eating Law (Ley 27,642) in Argentina, one of the most comprehensive policies to introduce mandatory front-of-package (FOP) warning labels and regulate the marketing and sales of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) adopted to date.
Methods
We conducted seventeen semi-structured interviews with advocates from different sectors, including civil society, international agencies, and government. Both data collection and analysis were guided by Milsom’s conceptual framework for analyzing power in public health policymaking, and the data was analyzed using hybrid deductive and inductive thematic analysis.
Results
Advocates harnessed structural power through the leveraging of revolving doors, informal alliances, and formal coalitions, enabling them to convene discussion spaces with decision-makers, make strategic use of limited resources, and cultivate the diverse expertise (e.g., research, nutrition science, advocacy, law, political science, activism and communications) needed to support the law through different phases of the policy process. Advocates wielded instrumental power by amassing an armada of localized evidence to promote robust policy design, building technical literacy amongst themselves and decision-makers, and exposing conflicts of interest to harness public pressure. Advocates exercised discursive power by adopting a rights-based discourse, including of children and adolescents and of consumers to transparent information, which enabled advocates to foster a favorable perception of the law amongst both decision-makers and the public. Key contextual enablers include a political window of opportunity, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ability to learn from the regional precedent of similar policies.
Conclusions
Public health policymaking, particularly when encroaching upon corporate interests, is characterized by stark imbalances of power that hinder policy decisions. The strategies identified in the case of Argentina provide important insights as to how advocates might harness and exercise structural, instrumental, and discursive power to counter corporate influence and promote the successful adoption of comprehensive UPF regulation.
A quantitative content analysis of topical characteristics of the online COVID-19 infodemic in the United States and Japan
Abstract
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred the growth of a global infodemic. In order to combat the COVID-19 infodemic, it is necessary to understand what kinds of misinformation are spreading. Furthermore, various local factors influence how the infodemic manifests in different countries. Therefore, understanding how and why infodemics differ between countries is a matter of interest for public health. This study aims to elucidate and compare the types of COVID-19 misinformation produced from the infodemic in the US and Japan.
Methods
COVID-19 fact-checking articles were obtained from the two largest publishers of fact-checking articles in each language. 1,743 US articles and 148 Japanese articles in their respective languages were gathered, with articles published between 23 January 2020 and 4 November 2022. Articles were analyzed using the free text mining software KH Coder. Exploration of frequently-occurring words and groups of related words was carried out. Based on agglomeration plots and prior research, eight categories of misinformation were created. Lastly, coding rules were created for these eight categories, and a chi-squared test was performed to compare the two datasets.
Results
Overall, the most frequent words in both languages were related to health-related terms, but the Japan dataset had more words referring to foreign countries. Among the eight categories, differences with chi-squared p ≤ 0.01 were found after Holm-Bonferroni p value adjustment for the proportions of misinformation regarding statistics (US 40.0% vs. JP 25.7%, ϕ 0.0792); origin of the virus and resultant discrimination (US 7.0% vs. JP 20.3%, ϕ 0.1311); and COVID-19 disease severity, treatment, or testing (US 32.6% vs. JP 45.9%, ϕ 0.0756).
Conclusions
Local contextual factors were found that likely influenced the infodemic in both countries; representations of these factors include societal polarization in the US and the HPV vaccine scare in Japan. It is possible that Japan’s relative resistance to misinformation affects the kinds of misinformation consumed, directing attention away from conspiracy theories and towards health-related issues. However, more studies need to be done to verify whether misinformation resistance affects misinformation consumption patterns this way.
The environmental rule of law and the protection of human rights defenders: law, society, technology, and markets
Abstract
Environmental human rights defenders (EHRDs) play a key role in the realization of the environmental rule of law and in strengthening social and ecological sustainability. States have the duty to protect and empower the EHRDs, while businesses, investors, and financial institutions also have responsibilities to respect human rights. Although the literature on human rights defenders is comprehensive, the article offers a theoretical analysis of the challenges facing the EHRDs by using Lawrence Lessig’s New Chicago School approach to explore the opportunities for bridging the gap between the theory and practice concerning the protection of EHRDs. The article endeavors to contribute to the literature by methodologically explaining the importance of legal regulation and State intervention for creating a safe and just space for the activities of the EHRDs. It demonstrates the effects of the four modalities in Lessig’s theory—i.e. the law, the social norms (culture), the architecture (technology), and the market—on the behavior of EHRDs, and ultimately on democracies while emphasizing the power of law as one of these modalities and being one of the imperative elements of the environmental rule of law. It argues that the adoption of international agreements, laws and policies regulating culture, technology, and markets, would empower civil society and encourage broad participation in the decision-making processes both within the States and the businesses to ensure accountable, transparent, and inclusive governance. It concludes that strengthened legal protection mechanisms for the rights of the rights’ defenders is an urgent need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and the environmental rule of law.