Mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change on river water quality through adaptation strategies: A Case Study of the Ardak Catchment, Northeast Iran

Abstract

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate change on river water quality in Ardak Watershed, Northeast Iran, and proposes adaptation strategies to mitigate adverse effects. The SWAT model is calibrated and verified by Monthly water quality sampling and flow measurements. The premium SWAT-CUP model was utilized for sensitivity analysis and parameter adjustment to simulate runoff, sediment, nitrate, mineral phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen. Future catchment temperature and precipitation were projected using CMhyd statistical downscaling by incorporating four CMIP6 models under SSP scenarios for the near (2025–2049), intermediate (2050–2074), and far (2075–2099) future. The Mianmorgh River experienced increased levels of various pollutants in winter, summer, and autumn but decreased in spring for future periods. In the Abghad River, pollutant levels are expected to increase from late autumn to late winter and decrease in other months. Nitrate increased from the late summer to late winter, then decreased throughout the year. Three adaptation strategies were proposed: reducing rural swage pollutants, creating pasture on 5% of unvegetated land, and combining both. The SWAT model showed responsiveness to the mix scenario, with average reductions of 4—4.5% for suspended solids, 23—16% for inorganic phosphorus, and 16—20% for nitrate for the first strategy. The results revealed that climate change can significantly affect water quality, but its adverse effects can be mitigated with suitable actions. Combined adaptation strategies effectively reduced suspended solids and mineral phosphorus and removed pollutants. Therefore, implementing a combination of effective strategies is more beneficial than individual approaches.

Quo vadis Scots pine forestry in northern Germany: How do silvicultural management and climate change determine an uncertain future?

Abstract

Scots pine is of greatest importance in northern Germany regarding its cultivation area and expected capability to perform in climate change. However, pine predominantly occurs in monocultures. Therefore, future pine forestry depends on an adaptation to climate change while improving ecological and economic forest functions. Yet future development of pine remains uncertain due to leeway in silvicultural guidelines and future climate. This study questions: (i) what is the range of future pine shares under climate change and different silvicultural management in northern Germany, (ii) how will the current stands develop and (iii) what is the range of uncertainty arising from climate models and silvicultural options? To answer these issues we (i) selected forest development types site- and climate-sensitively to either minimize or to maximize pine shares, (ii) simulated four, now practiced forest management scenarios for 50 years based on the German National Forest Inventory and (iii) analyzed the differences, to be interpreted as uncertainty. Novel to our approach is the site- and climate-sensitive selection of forest development types on large scales which emphasizes the contrasts of the different management guidelines. The results show that growing stock and cultivation area will decrease even if pine is promoted in forestry. The predicted restoration rate ranges from 50 to 72% depending on scenario and previous thinning regime. In conclusion, under the given management concepts and considering today’s high proportion of old pine, restoration is alarmingly slow. Amid the rapidly changing climate, we recommend to further adjust the management guidelines to accelerate forest restoration.

The application of evolutionary computation in generative adversarial networks (GANs): a systematic literature survey

Abstract

As a subfield of deep learning (DL), generative adversarial networks (GANs) have produced impressive generative results by applying deep generative models to create synthetic data and by performing an adversarial training process. Nevertheless, numerous issues related to the instability of training need to be urgently addressed. Evolutionary computation (EC), using the corresponding paradigm of biological evolution, overcomes these problems and improves evolutionary-based GANs’ ability to deal with real-world applications. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature survey combining EC and GANs. First, the basic theories of GANs and EC are analyzed and summarized. Second, to provide readers with a comprehensive view, this paper outlines the recent advances in combining EC and GANs after detailed classification and introduces each of them. These classifications include evolutionary GANs and their variants, GANs with evolutionary strategies and differential evolution, GANs combined with neuroevolution, evolutionary GANs related to different optimization problems, and applications of evolutionary GANs. Detailed information on the evaluation metrics, network structures, and comparisons of these models is presented in several tables. Finally, future directions and possible perspectives for further development are discussed.

A comprehensive exploration of chronic kidney disease and dialysis in Canada’s Indigenous population: from epidemiology to genetic influences

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to review the escalating prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among Canada’s Indigenous population, focusing on risk factors, hospitalization and mortality rates, and disparities in kidney transplantation. The study explores how these factors contribute to the health outcomes of this population and examines the influence of genetic variations on CKD progression.

Methods

The review synthesizes data on prevalence rates, hospitalization and mortality statistics, and transplantation disparities among Indigenous individuals. It also delves into the complexities of healthcare access, including geographical, socioeconomic, and psychological barriers. Additionally, the manuscript investigates the impact of racial factors on blood characteristics relevant to dialysis treatment and the genetic predispositions influencing disease progression in Indigenous populations.

Results

Indigenous individuals exhibit a higher prevalence of CKD and ESRD risk factors such as diabetes and obesity, particularly in regions like Saskatchewan. These patients face a 77% higher risk of death compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts and are less likely to receive kidney transplants. Genetic analyses reveal significant associations between CKD and specific genomic variations. Through analyses, we found that healthy Indigenous individuals may have higher levels of circulating inflammatory markers, which could become further elevated for those with CKD. In particular, they may have higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) fibrinogen, as well as genomic variations that affect IL-6 production and the function of von Willebrand Factor (vWF) which has critical potential influence on the compatibility with dialysis membranes contributing to complications in dialysis.

Conclusion

Indigenous people in Canada are disproportionately burdened by CKD and ESRD due to socioeconomic factors and potential genetic predispositions. While significant efforts have been made to assess the socioeconomic conditions of the Indigenous population, the genetic factors and their potential critical influence on compatibility with dialysis membranes, contributing to treatment complications, remain understudied. Further investigation into these genetic predispositions is essential.

“How About Being Trustworthy Rather Than Asking Families to Trust?”: A Prerequisite for Child Protection Authorities Partnering with Indigenous Communities

Abstract

Australia’s Indigenous children are 12 times more likely than non-Indigenous children to be in out-of-home care, a rate that has been increasing. Since 2009, government policies have committed to keeping children safe in families through support, early intervention, and Indigenous self-determination. Action has not matched policy. Quantitative and qualitative survey data from third parties (n = 29 Indigenous and n = 358 non-Indigenous) are analysed with a view to understanding expectations and visions for reform. Third parties expressed distrust and resistance toward child protection authorities. Indigenous third parties more so. Achieving reform objectives depends on child protection authorities initiating relational repair with third parties through addressing ritualism, implementing policy and investing in genuine partnering. Indigenous third parties, in addition, identified institutional racism and cultural disrespect as obstacles to reform.

The effect of NAFTA on Mexico’s wage gap

Abstract

This paper studies how the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) affected the wage gap between high and low-paid workers within Mexico, considering internal migration. In low-skilled, labor-abundant developing countries, trade liberalization should theoretically increase the wages of low-skilled workers, decreasing income inequality. However, anecdotal evidence indicates that NAFTA increased the gap between rich and poor in Mexico, and empirical evidence is mixed (Hirte et al. 2020; Brülhart 2011; Bosch and Manacorda 2010; Nicita 2009; Chiquiar 2008; Hanson 2007; Gonzalez-Rivas 2007). Because trade may affect wages differently across regions within the country, accurate measures of wage effects must incorporate internal migration; otherwise, apparent wage convergence or divergence might only reflect a geographic resorting of workers. We evaluate wage changes by considering rural-to-urban migration. We first find a slight decrease in both internal and external migration in the years after NAFTA. Then, we find that all male workers see a wage reduction from trade openness, although the harm of high-wage workers almost doubled that of their counterparts with low wages. NAFTA also mitigated some of the wage differentials between the North and South. In summary, trade liberalization has reduced wage differentials among working-age men in urban areas.

Sustainability in the arctic: a bibliometric analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the literature on the Sustainability in the Arctic region, using a bibliometric analysis of 213 English-language articles published between 1980 and 2022 exploiting Bibliometrix, an R package. To find relevant literature using the Web of Science (WOS) database, we searched for documents using mesh terms based on the query of two terms, “Arctic & Sustainability”. We used the Boolean operator “AND” to combine the two terms and the Boolean operator “OR” to include synonyms of the terms. The articles retrieved were authored by 724 researchers, published in 98 journals, representing 132 countries, and growing at 5.08% annually. The findings reveal that a substantial portion of the Arctic sustainability literature placed significant emphasis on the examination of climate change, adaptation, and vulnerabilities affecting local communities. Furthermore, the more recent publications in this field concentrate predominantly on exploring perceptions and governance.

Deadliest natural disaster in Balinese history in November 1815 revealed by Western and Indonesian written sources

Abstract

In November 1815, the deadliest “natural” disaster in Balinese history was caused by the exceptional combination of multiple natural hazards that occurred simultaneously and cascaded in the present-day province of Buleleng. This major disaster, which is thought to have claimed more than 10,000 lives, has never been scientifically analyzed. The study conducts an in-depth analysis of this cascading disaster, from the root causes and chronology of natural hazards to their environmental and societal effects, by thoroughly examining all available written sources about this event, whether colonial or Indonesian. Seven months after the Tambora eruption, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake, which occurred in the Bali Sea off the northern coast of the island, triggered a very large landslide on the northern flank of the Buyan-Bratan caldera. The initial mass movement evolved into a cohesive debris flow that reached the sea after traveling up to twenty kilometers through Banyumala River Valley and Singaraja City downstream. According to historical accounts, fifteen villages were buried or devastated by the debris flow. The large volume of sediment entering the sea triggered a local tsunami along Buleleng’s coast. This geohistorical approach offers a comprehensive overview of various sources describing Singaraja’s situation before the crisis, the hazard succession, the cascading hazard intensities, and the short- to long-term impacts on Buleleng. Based on the written sources, Bali took around fifteen years to recover from the 1815 disasters.

Exploring online reproductive health promotion in Canada: a focus on behavioral and environmental influences from a sex and gender perspective

Abstract

Background

Reproductive health promotion can enable early mitigation of behavioral and environmental risk factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, while optimizing health of women + (all genders that can gestate a fetus) and babies. Although the biological and social influences of partners on pregnancy are well established, it is unknown whether online Canadian government reproductive health promotion also targets men and partners throughout the reproductive lifespan.

Methods

Reproductive health promotion, designed for the general public, was assessed in a multi-jurisdictional sample of Canadian government (federal, provincial/territorial, and municipal) and select non-governmental organization (NGO) websites. For each website, information related to environmental and behavioral influences on reproductive health (preconception, pregnancy, postpartum) was evaluated based on comprehensiveness, audience-specificity, and scientific quality.

Results

Government and NGO websites provided sparse reproductive health promotion for partners which was generally limited to preconception behavior topics with little coverage of environmental hazard topics. For women + , environmental and behavioral influences on reproductive health were well promoted for pregnancy, with content gaps for preconception and postpartum stages.

Conclusion

Although it is well established that partners influence pregnancy outcomes and fetal/infant health, Canadian government website promotion of partner-specific environmental and behavioral risks was limited. Most websites across jurisdictions promoted behavioral influences on pregnancy, however gaps were apparent in the provision of health information related to environmental hazards. As all reproductive stages, including preconception and postpartum, may be susceptible to environmental and behavioral influences, online health promotion should use a sex- and gender-lens to address biological contributions to embryo, fetal and infant development, as well as contributions of partners to the physical and social environments of the home.

Does commercialization lead to more intensive management strategies? Decision-making for the utilization of non-timber forest products in a Nahua area of the Sierra Negra, Mexico

Abstract

Background

The commercialization of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) provides income for rural indigenous households. The integration of NTFPs into formal markets tends to intensify management practices to ensure production and monetary benefits. However, more research is needed to understand the motivations for managing of commercialized species. We examine the influence of social, ecological, and economic factors on traditional management and how they drive the adoption of more or less intensive practices for subsistence and commercially traded NTFPs.

Methods

The study was conducted in the Nahua community of Ixtacxochitla, in the Sierra Negra of central Mexico, where we conducted free lists and semi-structured interviews in 32% of the 88 households to assess socio-ecological variables related to management practices. In addition, we interviewed local traders to assess commercial variables used in a cost–benefit model to calculate the net annual income of commercialized species. Non-metric multidimensional scaling was used to analyze relationships between socio-ecological variables and management practices. We also explored the relationship between management and commercial factors using principal component analysis.

Results

We recorded 64 plant and mushroom species of NTFPs used for medicinal, ornamental, ceremonial, and edible purposes, 36 of which are commercialized in the municipal market of Coyomeapan. The commercialized species generated an average annual net income of MXN 67,526 (USD 3924) per family, with five species contributing the most. Species both used for both subsistence and commercialization were managed through incipient in situ gathering, tolerance in ex situ anthropogenic areas, and intensive protection and propagation efforts in ex situ environments. Even the five species with the highest commercial returns were managed across this gradient of practices. Key factors influencing the adoption of more intensive species management practices were feasibility of management, type of species use, ecological abundance, frequency of consumption, and cultural importance.

Conclusions

The intensification of NTFPs management is not solely driven by the commercial value of the products or the level of income generated. Instead, the interaction between socio-ecological and economic factors determines the extent of management practices. The main constraint to the implementation of intensive practices has been the inability to manage species outside their natural habitats, despite their cultural significance and frequent consumption. Understanding the factors involved in the harvesting of NTFPs can serve as the basis for future research aimed at analyzing the conditions for successful and sustainable NTFPs commercialization.