Assessment of the impact of climate change on current and future flows of the ungauged Aga-Foua-Djilas watershed: a comparative study of hydrological models CWatM under ISIMIP and HMF-WA

Abstract

Studying the pressing impacts of climate change on runoff is vital for the sustainable functioning of society and ecosystems. In Senegal, there is insufficient consideration given to the magnitude of the decrease in water resources caused by climate change and the potential impact of this decrease on both society and the environment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the hydrological effects of climate change in the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin by employing CWatM hydrological models inside the frameworks of ISIMIP and HMF-WA. Over the historical period (1981–2019) in the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin, the analysis of all hydrological parameters indicates positive trends, although not statistically significant (except for runoff). Over the future period, unlike temperatures and PET, which show an upward trend in all scenarios, precipitation and runoff show downward trends, which are more significant under SSP 585. For precipitation, Kendall’s Tau shows a downward trend of − 0.157 mm/yr, − 0.321 mm/yr, and − 0.472 mm/yr under SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585, respectively. For runoff, the trends are negative and of the order of − 0.207 m3/s/yr, − 0.44 m3/s/yr, and − 0.565 m3/s/yr, respectively, under SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585 with CwatM and − 0.248 m3/s/yr (SSP 126), − 0.389 m3/s/yr (SSP 245) and − 0.579 m3/s/yr (SSP585) with HMF-WA. Compared with the decrease in precipitation toward the end of the century, the decrease in runoff noted for the distant future (2081–2100) will be of the order of − 32.8% (SSP 126), − 80.8% (SSP 370) and − 94.6% (SSP 585) with CwatM and − 22.3% (SSP 126), − 19.6% (SSP 245) and − 50.9% (SSP 585) with HMF-WA. This study could help policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies for the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin.

Child Protection Decision-Making Regarding First Nations Children in Quebec: Empirical Support for a Call for Systemic Change

Abstract

First Nations children are overrepresented in child protection (CP) throughout the spectrum of services across Canada. The mechanisms through which this overrepresentation occurs have remained partly elusive to empirical support, although certain caregivers’ and living environment’s characteristics appear to influence specific CP decisions. This study aims to determine if First Nations children were more at risk of experiencing three CP outcomes (unsubstantiated investigations; transfer to ongoing services; placement) and which factors could explain the differing risk experienced. Anonymized data from the 2014 Quebec incidence study on investigated child maltreatment reports were analyzed through multivariate logistic regressions. A total of 3977 children aged 0–17 were included, of which 3.9% (n = 156) were First Nations. First Nations children were no more likely than non-Indigenous children to have an unsubstantiated investigation, although the household’s economic conditions were associated with this decision for First Nations children only. First Nations children were, however, more likely to have their case transferred to ongoing services, with odds ratios varying according to the presence or absence of caregiver functioning problem and unsafe living conditions. An overcrowded house explained the overrepresentation of First Nations children in placements. The factors playing a role in CP decisions found in this study may be related to past and ongoing colonialist policies, affecting First Nations communities and resulting in deprived socioeconomic and living conditions to this day. With recent policy change in Canada affirming that socioeconomic conditions cannot be the only grounds for CP involvement for Indigenous children, future research needs to document whether this key national norm is respected.

Co-creating coastal sustainability goals and indicators

Abstract

Indicators can be powerful tools to measure progress towards achieving societal goals, and many indicators have been developed for sustainability goals nationally and internationally. When indicators are developed solely through top-down approaches without engaging local knowledge, they often fall short of capturing local perceptions and concerns relevant to decision-making. The aim of this project was to co-create a Coastal Barometer and its component indicators, together with local knowledge-holders and communities, using the Ocean Health Index as a framework. As a first step, local knowledge-holders from six communities dispersed across Northern Norway were invited to articulate local sustainability goals and the required knowledge for eight broad topics pertaining to global OHI goals: small-scale fisheries, food production, sense of place, tourism, food production, clean waters, carbon storage and economy and livelihoods. In this paper, our main focus is the co-design phase of the Coastal Barometer, namely eliciting sustainability goals. We thus, present locally desired sustainability goals and sub-goals and the process of eliciting these goals. We also include suggestions from local knowledge-holders on how to reach these goals (i.e. proposed management measures), along with researchers’ assessment of data availability (part of the co-production process) for developing indicators to measure progress towards these goals. Finally, we discuss the benefits and challenges of co-developing sustainability goals and indicators with local knowledge-holders. We conclude that co-design can increase the quality of sustainability assessments by enriching the view of coastal sustainability. This knowledge can subsequently be used to align indicators with local sustainability goals as well as to the local context where the indicators will be applied.

Co-creating a global shared research agenda on violence against women in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

Background

Despite a large growth in evidence on violence against women (VAW) over the last 25 years, VAW persists, as do gaps in the field’s knowledge of how to prevent and respond to it. To ensure that research on VAW in low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs) is addressing the most significant gaps in knowledge, and to prioritise evidence needs to reduce VAW and better support victims/survivors, the Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) and Equality Institute (EQI) led a process of developing a global shared research agenda (GSRA) on VAW in LMICs.

Methods

The GSRA was developed through a six-stage adaptation of the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, which draws on the principle of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’. These steps included: a review of the literature on VAW in LMICs and development of domains; the generation of research questions within four domains by an Advisory Group; the consolidation of research questions; scoring of research questions by a Global Expert Group and the Advisory Group according to three criteria (applicability, effectiveness and equity); consultation and validation of the findings with the Advisory Group; and wide dissemination of the findings.

Results

The highest ranked research questions in the GSRA pertain to the domain of Intervention research, with some highly ranked questions also pertaining to the domain of Understanding VAW in its multiple forms. Questions under the other two domains, Improving existing interventions, and Methodological and measurement gaps, were not prioritised as highly by experts. There was strong consistency in top ranked research questions according to experts’ characteristics, albeit with some important differences according to experts’ gender, occupation and geographical location.

Conclusions

The GSRA findings suggest that currently the VAW field is shifting towards intervention research after several decades of building evidence on understanding VAW, including prevalence, drivers and impacts of violence. The findings also suggest a strong emphasis on under-served populations, and under-researched forms of VAW. Future priority setting exercises in LMICs that seek to decolonise knowledge should ensure that methodologies, and modalities of engagement, put diverse voices at the centre of engagement.

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The Manager and Love: Evoking a Loving Inquiry in a Group Setting

Abstract

Neuroscientists, psychologists, educators, and management scholars propose that the current emphasis on intellect and reason in education and business over values such as love, connectedness, and compassion are at the root of many business ethical failures and societal problems. They argue not that reason should be abandoned in education and business management but rather that it needs to be balanced with values such as love because these attributes are innately human, enabling wise decision-making. This is a difficult task in the context of the current ethos of intellect and reason that dominates education and management. To correct the imbalance, we must explore ways of preparing future managers to accept the relevance and importance of learning to develop and embody love. Through our research, we provide an experience of community love by creating a caring, receptive, personal container. We engaged in the practice of Collaborative Autoethnography, integrating the Nguni South African concept of Ubuntu, to explore, research, and demonstrate the experience of love in a community setting. To support this practice, we framed it against the background of integrative justice, focusing on authentic engagement without exploitative intent as per Santos and Laczniak’s (2015) Integrative Justice Model (IJM) and built upon some common contexts from which love is considered such as Catholic Social Thought (CST) and indigenous cultures. We analyzed why and how love might be implemented in education and management and how Collaborative Autoethnography can be applied in connecting with others to research, learn from, and build upon the experience of love and connectedness.

Towards a public policy of cities and human settlements in the 21st century

Abstract

Cities and other human settlements are major contributors to climate change and are highly vulnerable to its impacts. They are also uniquely positioned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lead adaptation efforts. These compound challenges and opportunities require a comprehensive perspective on the public policy of human settlements. Drawing on core literature that has driven debate around cities and climate over recent decades, we put forward a set of boundary objects that can be applied to connect the knowledge of epistemic communities and support an integrated urbanism. We then use these boundary objects to develop the Goals-Intervention-Stakeholder-Enablers (GISE) framework for a public policy of human settlements that is both place-specific and provides insights and tools useful for climate action in cities and other human settlements worldwide. Using examples from Berlin, we apply this framework to show that climate mitigation and adaptation, public health, and well-being goals are closely linked and mutually supportive when a comprehensive approach to urban public policy is applied.

Integration of the Non-linear Time Series GARCH Model with Fuzzy Model Optimized with Water Cycle Algorithm for River Streamflow Forecasting

Abstract

For managing water resources and operating reservoirs in dynamic contexts, accurate hydrological forecasting is essential. However, it is difficult to track complex hydrological time series with highly non-linear and non-stationary characteristics. The intricacy of the issue is further increased by the risk and uncertainty that are brought about by the dependence of several factors on the hydrological system’s output. To hydrologically model river outflows, a hybrid GARCH time series model technique has been applied in this study. To improve the precision of the proposed model estimation, this hybrid model employs a controllable fuzzy logic system to explore the impact of various input variables and an Archimedean detail function to account for the uncertainty in the dependence of the variables. The prediction error in this model is minimized by utilizing weighting factors and problem analysis parameters that are calculated using the water cycle algorithm. It was found that the minimum root-mean-square error values for the training and testing modeling stages are RMSE = 1.89 m and 1.92 m, respectively, by looking at the hydrological modeling results for a watershed of the Karaj dam. For extended lead (i.e., a 6-month rainfall lag), the weakest forecasting capacity was found. The modeling of the copula function using a higher percentage of answers in the confidence band and a smaller bandwidth resulted in less uncertainty for the estimation of the suggested model, according to the uncertainty analysis.