MieAI: a neural network for calculating optical properties of internally mixed aerosol in atmospheric models

Abstract

Aerosols influence weather and climate by interacting with radiation through absorption and scattering. These effects heavily rely on the optical properties of aerosols, which are mainly governed by attributes such as morphology, size distribution, and chemical composition. These attributes undergo continuous changes due to chemical reactions and aerosol micro-physics, resulting in significant spatio-temporal variations. Most atmospheric models struggle to incorporate this variability because they use pre-calculated tables to handle aerosol optics. This offline approach often leads to substantial errors in estimating the radiative impacts of aerosols along with posing significant computational burdens. To address this challenge, we introduce a computationally efficient and robust machine learning approach called MieAI. It allows for relatively inexpensive calculation of the optical properties of internally mixed aerosols with a log-normal size distribution. Importantly, MieAI fully incorporates the variability in aerosol chemistry and microphysics. Our evaluation of MieAI against traditional Mie calculations, using number concentrations from the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with Aerosol and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART) simulations, demonstrates that MieAI exhibits excellent predictive accuracy for aerosol optical properties. MieAI achieves this with errors well within 10%, and it operates more than 1000 times faster than the benchmark approach of Mie calculations. Due to its generalized nature, the MieAI approach can be implemented in any chemistry transport model which represents aerosol size distribution in the form of log-normally distributed internally mixed modes. This advancement has the potential to replace frequently employed look-up tables and plays a substantial role in the ongoing attempts to reduce uncertainties in estimating aerosol radiative forcing.

Projected changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity over high mountain Asia: results from dynamical downscaling outputs

Abstract

Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic conditions that affect wind erosion. Projecting wind erosion climatic erosivity is curcial for predicting future wind erosion risk. In this study, we employed dynamic downscaling outputs from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model to project changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity over High Mountain Asia (HMA) from 2041 to 2060 under a middle-emission scenario (an additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 by 2100). From 1995 to 2014, wind erosion climatic erosivity in HMA was high in the southwest, on the Qiangtang Plateau, and in the Qaidam Basin, exceeding 1 kg·m−1 s−1. Compared to the period 1995–2014, wind erosion climatic erosivity is projected to decrease by 0.5 kg·m−1 s−1 over the east of the Qiangtang Plateau and increase by approximately 1 kg·m−1 s−1 in the southwest of the HMA during 2041–2060 under the middle emission scenario. This increase in wind erosion climatic erosivity in the southwest of HMA is attributed to a projected rise in high-wind frequency for 2041–2060 compared to 1995–2014. Conversely, the decrease in wind erosion climatic erosivity in the east of the Qiangtang Plateau results from increased precipitation during 2041–2060, which mitigates the effects of increased high-wind frequencies. Given the growing risk of wind erosion in the southwest of the HMA, it’s essential to implement appropriate mitigation policies for the future.

Screening CMIP6 models for Chile based on past performance and code genealogy

Abstract

We describe and demonstrate a two-step approach for screening global climate models (GCMs) and produce robust annual and seasonal climate projections for Chile. First, we assess climate model simulations through a Past Performance Index (PPI) inspired by the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, which accounts for climatological averages, interannual variability, seasonal cycles, monthly probabilistic distribution, spatial patterns of climatological means, and the capability of the GCMs to reproduce teleconnection responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The PPI formulation is flexible enough to include additional variables and evaluation metrics and weight them differently. Secondly, we use a recently proposed GCM classification based on model code genealogy to obtain a subset of independent model structures from the top 60% GCMs in terms of PPI values. We use this approach to evaluate 27 models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and generate projections in five regions with very different climates across continental Chile. The results show that the GCM evaluation framework is able to identify pools of poor-performing and well-behaved models at each macrozone. Because of its flexibility, the model features that may be improved through bias correction can be excluded from the model evaluation process to avoid culling GCMs that can replicate other climate features and observed teleconnections. More generally, the results presented here can be used as a reference for regional studies and GCM selection for dynamical downscaling, while highlighting the difficulty in constraining precipitation and temperature projections.

Softly empowering a prosocial expert in the family: lasting effects of a counter-misinformation intervention in an informational autocracy

Abstract

The present work is the first to comprehensively analyze the gravity of the misinformation problem in Hungary, where misinformation appears regularly in the pro-governmental, populist, and socially conservative mainstream media. In line with international data, using a Hungarian representative sample (Study 1, N = 991), we found that voters of the reigning populist, conservative party could hardly distinguish fake from real news. In Study 2, we demonstrated that a prosocial intervention of ~ 10 min (N = 801) helped young adult participants discern misinformation four weeks later compared to the control group without implementing any boosters. This effect was the most salient regarding pro-governmental conservative fake news content, leaving real news evaluations intact. Although the hypotheses of the present work were not preregistered, it appears that prosocial misinformation interventions might be promising attempts to counter misinformation in an informational autocracy in which the media is highly centralized. Despite using social motivations, it does not mean that long-term cognitive changes cannot occur. Future studies might explore exactly how these interventions can have an impact on the long-term cognitive processing of news content as well as their underlying neural structures.

Analyzing the worldwide perception of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through Twitter

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the worldwide perception of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (RU conflict for short) on the Twitter platform. The study involved collecting over 17 million tweets written in 63 different languages and conducting a multi-language sentiment analysis, as well as an analysis of their geographical distribution and verification of their temporal relationship to daily events. Additionally, the study focused on analyzing the accounts producing pro-conflict tweets to evaluate the possible presence of bots. The results of the analysis showed that the war had a significant global impact on Twitter, with the volume of tweets increasing as the war’s threats materialized. There was a strong correlation between the succession of events, the volume of tweets, and the prevalence of a specific sentiment. Most tweets had a negative sentiment, while tweets with positive sentiment mainly contained support and hope for people directly involved in the conflict. Moreover, a bot detection analysis performed on the collected tweets revealed the presence of many accounts spreading tweets including pro-conflict hashtags that cannot be identified as real users. Overall, this study sheds light on the importance of social media in shaping public opinion during conflicts and highlights the need for reliable methods to detect bots.

How to divide people with things: division entrepreneurs, wedges, and the Delta Smelt controversy

Abstract

Drawing on a multi-method analysis of the controversy surrounding the Delta Smelt, an endangered fish emblematic of California’s so-called “water wars,” this article develops the concepts of division entrepreneurs as strategic actors who articulate partisan selves in relation to partisan others, and wedges as divisive cultural objects. Despite the appearance of a conflict about the distribution of water, the dynamics of the Delta Smelt controversy cannot be explained hydrologically. Instead, conservative division entrepreneurs opportunistically imbued the species with partisan significance, thus mobilizing it as a wedge. The Delta Smelt’s particular qualities, including its status as an uncharismatic microfauna, afforded divisive action. Forging new connections among literatures on the construction of social problems, political polarization, and pragmatist cultural sociology, this article proposes a framework for understanding how strategic actors use objects to shape political senses of “us” and “them.”

Strategic fire zones are essential to wildfire risk reduction in the Western United States

Abstract

Background

Over the last four decades, wildfires in forests of the continental western United States have significantly increased in both size and severity after more than a century of fire suppression and exclusion. Many of these forests historically experienced frequent fire and were fuel limited. To date, fuel reduction treatments have been small and too widely dispersed to have impacted this trend. Currently new land management plans are being developed on most of the 154 National Forests that will guide and support on the ground management practices for the next 15–20 years.

Results

During plan development, we recommend that Strategic Fire Zones (SFZs) be identified in large blocks (≥ 2,000 ha) of Federal forest lands, buffered (≥ 1–2.4 km) from the wildland-urban interface for the reintroduction of beneficial fire. In SFZs, lightning ignitions, as well as prescribed and cultural burns, would be used to reduce fuels and restore ecosystem services. Although such Zones have been successfully established in a limited number of western National Parks and Wilderness Areas, we identify extensive remote areas in the western US (8.3–12.7 million ha), most outside of wilderness (85–88%), where they could be established. Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations or PODs would be used to identify SFZ boundaries. We outline steps to identify, implement, monitor, and communicate the use and benefits of SFZs.

Conclusions

Enhancing collaboration and knowledge-sharing with Indigenous communities can play a vital role in gaining agency and public support for SFZs, and in building a narrative for how to rebuild climate-adapted fire regimes and live within them. Meaningful increases in wildland fire use could multiply the amount of beneficial fire on the landscape while reducing the risk of large wildfires and their impacts on structures and ecosystem services.

Exploring shared decision-making needs in lung cancer screening among high-risk groups and health care providers in China: a qualitative study

Abstract

Background

The intricate balance between the advantages and risks of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) impedes the utilization of lung cancer screening (LCS). Guiding shared decision-making (SDM) for well-informed choices regarding LCS is pivotal. There has been a notable increase in research related to SDM. However, these studies possess limitations. For example, they may ignore the identification of decision support and needs from the perspective of health care providers and high-risk groups. Additionally, these studies have not adequately addressed the complete SDM process, including pre-decisional needs, the decision-making process, and post-decision experiences. Furthermore, the East-West divide of SDM has been largely ignored. This study aimed to explore the decisional needs and support for shared decision-making for LCS among health care providers and high-risk groups in China.

Methods

Informed by the Ottawa Decision-Support Framework, we conducted qualitative, face-to-face in-depth interviews to explore shared decision-making among 30 lung cancer high-risk individuals and 9 health care providers. Content analysis was used for data analysis.

Results

We identified 4 decisional needs that impair shared decision-making: (1) LCS knowledge deficit; (2) inadequate supportive resources; (3) shared decision-making conceptual bias; and (4) delicate doctor-patient bonds. We identified 3 decision supports: (1) providing information throughout the LCS process; (2) providing shared decision-making decision coaching; and (3) providing decision tools.

Conclusions

This study offers valuable insights into the decisional needs and support required to undergo LCS among high-risk individuals and perspectives from health care providers. Future studies should aim to design interventions that enhance the quality of shared decision-making by offering LCS information, decision tools for LCS, and decision coaching for shared decision-making (e.g., through community nurses). Simultaneously, it is crucial to assess individuals’ needs for effective deliberation to prevent conflicts and regrets after arriving at a decision.