Month: April 2024
Sympathies for Putin Within the German Public: A Consequence of Political Alienation?
Abstract
Why do individuals in democratic nations sympathize with autocratic leaders from abroad? In this article, we address this general question with regard to Germans’ attitudes toward Vladimir Putin in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Building on the intuition that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and its formalization in balance theory, our study focuses on the role of political alienation at home. To study this role comprehensively, we consider several facets of political alienation: a lack of trust in political institutions, low support for democracy as a regime, a sense of estrangement from public discourse, and an inclination toward conspiracy thinking. Using longitudinal analyses on data from the German Longitudinal Election Study panel, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our argument that political alienation—particularly in terms of low political trust and a proclivity for conspiracy thinking—drives sympathies for Putin and his regime. Against the backdrop of mounting attempts by Russia and other autocratic powers to influence discourses in Western societies via some segments of society, our findings illuminate one important source of sympathy for Putin and, potentially, foreign autocrats more broadly.
A Perceived Risk Index Leveraging Social Media Data: Assessing Severity of Fire on Microblogging
Abstract
Fires represent a significant threat to the environment, infrastructure, and human safety, often spreading rapidly with wide-ranging consequences such as economic losses and life risks. Early detection and swift response to fire outbreaks are crucial to mitigating their impact. While satellite-based monitoring is effective, it may miss brief or indoor fires. This paper introduces a novel Perceived Risk Index (PRI) that, complementing satellite data, leverages social media data to provide insights into the severity of fire events. In the light of the results of statistical analysis, the PRI incorporates the number of fire-related tweets and the associated emotional expressions to gauge the perceived risk. The index’s evaluation involves the development of a comprehensive system that collects, classifies, annotates, and correlates social media posts with satellite data, presenting the findings in an interactive dashboard. Experimental results using diverse datasets of real-fire tweets demonstrate an average best correlation of 77% between PRI and the brightness values of fires detected by satellites. This correlation extends to the real intensity of the corresponding fires, showcasing the potential of social media platforms in furnishing information for emergency response and decision-making. The proposed PRI proves to be a valuable tool for ongoing monitoring efforts, having the potential to capture data on fires missed by satellites. This contributes to the development to more effective strategies for mitigating the environmental, infrastructural, and safety impacts of fire events.
Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches
Abstract
The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.
An extremes-weighted empirical quantile mapping for global climate model data bias correction for improved emphasis on extremes
Abstract
Accuracy in the global climate model (GCM) projections is essential for developing reliable impact mitigation strategies. The conventional bias correction methods used to improve this accuracy often fail to capture the extremes, specifically for precipitation, due to the generic correction application to whole data. Given the importance of understanding future extreme precipitation behavior for disaster mitigation, we propose Extremes-Weighted Empirical Quantile Mapping (EW-EQM) bias correction with a specific emphasis on extremes. The EW-EQM applies separate EQM correction to threshold-exceeded extremes and frequency-adjusted non-extreme precipitation occurrences. The bias correction results demonstrated using station-observed precipitation records at 945 locations in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, and five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs demonstrate the strength of EW-EQM to improve the bias correction abilities of extreme precipitation occurrences. The spatial median of Root Mean Square error between observed and bias-corrected extreme precipitation was mostly less than 6 mm for EW-EQM across GCMs, while EQM and Power Transformation had a median higher than 12 mm. Further, future bias-corrected precipitation series for 2021–2050 under SSP245 indicate a 0–10% increase in total annual precipitation and a 10% decrease to 25% increase in mean annual maximum precipitation in the region. The improved bias correction of extremes could be significant in climate change impact mitigation decisions such as flood management.
UN peacekeeper health and risk factors — a systematic scoping review
Abstract
Background
Conflicts, natural disasters, and complex emergencies present substantial health challenges to United Nations (UN) peacekeepers deployed in mission areas. This scoping review aims at summarizing previous research on the health of UN peacekeepers and identifies issues for further investigation.
Methods
Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for Scoping Reviews, we systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) for English and Chinese literature published from April 1997 to November 2023. A data charting form was developed by two reviewers to extract relevant themes and provided narrative descriptions.
Results
We screened 1079 de-duplicated records and included 143 studies in this scoping review. There were 112 studies on the health status of UN peacekeepers, with more than half on mental health problems such as stress and anxiety. Many studies explored the health status of UN peacekeepers in African countries deployed from mainly U.S., Canada, U.K., China, Australia and Norway. There were 39 studies on the health risk factors of UN peacekeepers, including natural environmental, social environmental, psychological, behavioral lifestyle, biological factors and health service factors. There were 62 articles on the health protection of UN peacekeepers, mainly based on previous deployment experience, with a lack of theoretical guidance from global health perspectives. This scoping review found that health problems of UN peacekeepers are complicated, and whose impacts are cross-border. Social environmental factors were explored the most among health risk factors. Disease prevention measures, medical and health measures, and psychosocial measures were the main health protection for UN peacekeepers.
Conclusions
This scoping review highlighted that health problems of UN peacekeepers were typical global health issues with complicated and cross-border health risk factors. Therefore, comprehensive strategies could be taken from global health perspectives, including multi-phases (before-deployment, during-deployment, and post-deployment), multi-disciplines (public health, medicine, politics, health diplomacy, and others), and multi-levels (the UN, host countries, troop-contributing countries, the UN peacekeeping team, and UN peacekeepers).
UN peacekeeper health and risk factors — a systematic scoping review
Abstract
Background
Conflicts, natural disasters, and complex emergencies present substantial health challenges to United Nations (UN) peacekeepers deployed in mission areas. This scoping review aims at summarizing previous research on the health of UN peacekeepers and identifies issues for further investigation.
Methods
Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for Scoping Reviews, we systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) for English and Chinese literature published from April 1997 to November 2023. A data charting form was developed by two reviewers to extract relevant themes and provided narrative descriptions.
Results
We screened 1079 de-duplicated records and included 143 studies in this scoping review. There were 112 studies on the health status of UN peacekeepers, with more than half on mental health problems such as stress and anxiety. Many studies explored the health status of UN peacekeepers in African countries deployed from mainly U.S., Canada, U.K., China, Australia and Norway. There were 39 studies on the health risk factors of UN peacekeepers, including natural environmental, social environmental, psychological, behavioral lifestyle, biological factors and health service factors. There were 62 articles on the health protection of UN peacekeepers, mainly based on previous deployment experience, with a lack of theoretical guidance from global health perspectives. This scoping review found that health problems of UN peacekeepers are complicated, and whose impacts are cross-border. Social environmental factors were explored the most among health risk factors. Disease prevention measures, medical and health measures, and psychosocial measures were the main health protection for UN peacekeepers.
Conclusions
This scoping review highlighted that health problems of UN peacekeepers were typical global health issues with complicated and cross-border health risk factors. Therefore, comprehensive strategies could be taken from global health perspectives, including multi-phases (before-deployment, during-deployment, and post-deployment), multi-disciplines (public health, medicine, politics, health diplomacy, and others), and multi-levels (the UN, host countries, troop-contributing countries, the UN peacekeeping team, and UN peacekeepers).
My circuitous but fortuitous path to paleolimnology
Abstract
I was thrilled to receive a Lifetime Achievement Medal at the 15th International Paleolimnology Symposium (IPS) in Bariloche, Argentina (2022). I will use this opportunity to tell the story of how I stumbled into the field of paleolimnology, a discipline I had not heard of until I entered graduate school. In retrospect, I feel extremely lucky to have been able to spend the last five decades addressing interesting paleoclimate/paleoenvironment questions. Furthermore, my research and teaching have taken me to many biologically fascinating and culturally intriguing places around the world. I will also use this forum to express my gratitude to the many mentors, colleagues, students, friends, and acquaintances with whom I have collaborated throughout my career. Whatever success I have enjoyed, I attribute to my good fortune in having been able to work with numerous talented and hard-working fellow scientists.