Belief-consistent information is most shared despite being the least surprising

Abstract

In the classical information theoretic framework, information “value” is proportional to how novel/surprising the information is. Recent work building on such notions claimed that false news spreads faster than truth online because false news is more novel and therefore surprising. However, another determinant of surprise, semantic meaning (e.g., information’s consistency or inconsistency with prior beliefs), should also influence value and sharing. Examining sharing behavior on Twitter, we observed separate relations of novelty and belief consistency with sharing. Though surprise could not be assessed in those studies, belief consistency should relate to less surprise, suggesting the relevance of semantic meaning beyond novelty. In two controlled experiments, belief-consistent (vs. belief-inconsistent) information was shared more despite consistent information being the least surprising. Manipulated novelty did not predict sharing or surprise. Thus, classical information theoretic predictions regarding perceived value and sharing would benefit from considering semantic meaning in contexts where people hold pre-existing beliefs.

One size doesn’t fit all: methodological reflections in conducting community-based behavioural science research to tailor COVID-19 vaccination initiatives for public health priority populations

Abstract

Background

Promoting the uptake of vaccination for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 remains a global challenge, necessitating collaborative efforts between public health units (PHUs) and communities. Applied behavioural science can play a crucial role in supporting PHUs’ response by providing insights into human behaviour and informing tailored strategies to enhance vaccination uptake. Community engagement can help broaden the reach of behavioural science research by involving a more diverse range of populations and ensuring that strategies better represent the needs of specific communities. We developed and applied an approach to conducting community-based behavioural science research with ethnically and socioeconomically diverse populations to guide PHUs in tailoring their strategies to promote COVID-19 vaccination. This paper presents the community engagement methodology and the lessons learned in applying the methodology.

Methods

The community engagement methodology was developed based on integrated knowledge translation (iKT) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) principles. The study involved collaboration with PHUs and local communities in Ontario, Canada to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination, understand factors influencing vaccine uptake and co-design strategies tailored to each community to promote vaccination. Community engagement was conducted across three large urban regions with individuals from Eastern European communities, African, Black, and Caribbean communities and low socioeconomic neighbourhoods.

Results

We developed and applied a seven-step methodology for conducting community-based behavioural science research: (1) aligning goals with system-level partners; (2) engaging with PHUs to understand priorities; (3) understanding community strengths and dynamics; (4) building relationships with each community; (5) establishing partnerships (community advisory groups); (6) involving community members in the research process; and (7) feeding back and interpreting research findings. Research partnerships were successfully established with members of prioritized communities, enabling recruitment of participants for theory-informed behavioural science interviews, interpretation of findings, and co-design of targeted recommendations for each PHU to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake. Lessons learned include the importance of cultural sensitivity and awareness of sociopolitical context in tailoring community engagement, being agile to address the diverse and evolving priorities of PHUs, and building trust to achieve effective community engagement.

Conclusion

Effective community engagement in behavioural science research can lead to more inclusive and representative research. The community engagement approach developed and applied in this study acknowledges the diversity of communities, recognizes the central role of PHUs, and can help in addressing complex public health challenges.

Myths and matters of science education: a critical discourse on science and standards

Abstract

In this forum paper, I grapple with critical questions about our understanding of science as a discipline and the education standards formulated within that framing. My exploration is contextualized in our current socio-political climate and is presented in discourse with Charity Winburn’s Meeting the needs of the individual student in the post-pandemic era: an analysis of the next generation science standards. I draw on Winburn’s astute observations about the narratives and epistemologies that shape our current science standards as a springboard for diving deeper into questions about the ways of knowing and types of knowledge traditions that are uplifted in US science education. Through a dialogic process, I outline a critical analysis of the myth of neutrality, the prioritization of epistemologies, and the standardization of learning ingrained in traditional science curricula. I conclude by building on Winburn’s hopes for science education with my own aspirations for bringing joy into our collective science learning experiences.

A retrospective and prospective study of biostatistics in Canada

Abstract

Biostatistics is foundational to public health research and Canada has a history of high impact contributions both in seminal methodological advances and in the rigorous application of methods for the design or analysis of public health studies. In this article, we provide a brief and personal review of selected contributions from Canadian biostatisticians to fields such as survival and life history analysis, sampling, clinical trial methodology, environmental risk assessment, infectious disease epidemiology, and early work on prediction. We also provide a brief look forward at the upcoming needs and future directions of biostatistical research.

Is the split incentive problem worse for college student renters: an analysis of landlord self-reported and hypothetical choices?

Abstract

In the residential housing sector, energy conservation issues may arise in the relationship between landlords and renters (a.k.a. tenants) due to principal-agent and information problems. An example is the split incentive, where one party makes the energy efficiency decisions while the other pays the energy bill. Herein, we investigate whether the landlord and renter split incentive problem may be more likely and more challenging for college student renters than those who are not college students. This may occur from landlords perceiving that college renters lack sufficient demand for energy efficient improvements.

There is a lack of studies regarding the possibility that college renters may face greater exposure to the split incentive problem. We surveyed landlords to better understand their prior energy efficiency investment decisions and used a contingent valuation question to further investigate their choices for a hypothetical return on investment scenario. The landlords had various mixes of college students and non-students in their properties. Landlords renting one single-family property exclusively to college students had, on average, completed fewer major upgrades to their rental properties and were less likely to invest in a hypothetical insulation upgrade.

Assessment of impact of climate change on streamflow and soil moisture in Pare watershed of Arunachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

A fragile terrain makes a mountainous watershed like Pare in India’s eastern Himalayas extremely sensitive to climate change. However, this watershed has a great deal of potential for the development of water resources; thus, hydrological investigation and impact assessments in light of climate change are essential. Using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), the current study examined how discharge and soil moisture in the Pare River of Arunachal Pradesh would change in response to climate change. The projected streamflow was compared with the baseline projection during 1976–2005. The future precipitation scenarios predicted that there will be a decrease in rainy episodes and an increase in dry days in the Pare watershed. This meant that more extreme occurrences would occur in the future. The SWAT model’s performances during calibration and validation were deemed satisfactory based on the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, p-factor, and r-factor. It was discovered that SWAT slightly underestimated the discharge. The findings revealed that discharge would continue to rise as time progressed from the near to the far-future. Variations in discharge showed shrinkage in high flow days with increased flood amplitude, which might result in major flooding in low-lying areas downstream and significant soil erosion from the upland areas. It was predicted that the surface runoff component would increase significantly in the future, possibly leading to frequent flash floods and soil erosion. However, soil moisture in the Pare watershed would remain more or less the same throughout this century. Even if future streamflow was predicted to rise, worry would always persist due to its unequal distribution. The region's water managers may set guidelines for water and soil conservation measures to cope up with these changes. More studies may be conducted to recommend actions in the study region by local authorities and managers associated with various soil and water sectors.

Assessment of impact of climate change on streamflow and soil moisture in Pare watershed of Arunachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

A fragile terrain makes a mountainous watershed like Pare in India’s eastern Himalayas extremely sensitive to climate change. However, this watershed has a great deal of potential for the development of water resources; thus, hydrological investigation and impact assessments in light of climate change are essential. Using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), the current study examined how discharge and soil moisture in the Pare River of Arunachal Pradesh would change in response to climate change. The projected streamflow was compared with the baseline projection during 1976–2005. The future precipitation scenarios predicted that there will be a decrease in rainy episodes and an increase in dry days in the Pare watershed. This meant that more extreme occurrences would occur in the future. The SWAT model’s performances during calibration and validation were deemed satisfactory based on the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, p-factor, and r-factor. It was discovered that SWAT slightly underestimated the discharge. The findings revealed that discharge would continue to rise as time progressed from the near to the far-future. Variations in discharge showed shrinkage in high flow days with increased flood amplitude, which might result in major flooding in low-lying areas downstream and significant soil erosion from the upland areas. It was predicted that the surface runoff component would increase significantly in the future, possibly leading to frequent flash floods and soil erosion. However, soil moisture in the Pare watershed would remain more or less the same throughout this century. Even if future streamflow was predicted to rise, worry would always persist due to its unequal distribution. The region's water managers may set guidelines for water and soil conservation measures to cope up with these changes. More studies may be conducted to recommend actions in the study region by local authorities and managers associated with various soil and water sectors.

Reconstructing the ancestral gene pool to uncover the origins and genetic links of Hmong–Mien speakers

Abstract

Background

Hmong–Mien (HM) speakers are linguistically related and live primarily in China, but little is known about their ancestral origins or the evolutionary mechanism shaping their genomic diversity. In particular, the lack of whole-genome sequencing data on the Yao population has prevented a full investigation of the origins and evolutionary history of HM speakers. As such, their origins are debatable.

Results

Here, we made a deep sequencing effort of 80 Yao genomes, and our analysis together with 28 East Asian populations and 968 ancient Asian genomes suggested that there is a strong genetic basis for the formation of the HM language family. We estimated that the most recent common ancestor dates to 5800 years ago, while the genetic divergence between the HM and Tai–Kadai speakers was estimated to be 8200 years ago. We proposed that HM speakers originated from the Yangtze River Basin and spread with agricultural civilization. We identified highly differentiated variants between HM and Han Chinese, in particular, a deafness-related missense variant (rs72474224) in the GJB2 gene is in a higher frequency in HM speakers than in others.

Conclusions

Our results indicated complex gene flow and medically relevant variants involved in the HM speakers’ evolution history.

Women marching for solidarity: 5 years of Aurat March in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Abstract

In this paper, I argue that the Aurat March (Urdu: Woman March) in Pakistan has developed from a one-off event to a social movement that operates according to a populist logic as articulated by Ernesto Laclau (2018). I demonstrate how a diverse array of women’s demands is linked by a chain of equivalence to create solidarity between disparate communities of women. Here, all protestors define themselves in opposition to a common enemy, the patriarchy, allowing for a wide array of marginalized ethnic, religious and gender identities to be subsumed under the Aurat March banner. The slogan mera jism meri marzi (Urdu: my body, my choice) acts as a signifier that becomes increasingly empty, allowing a variety of demands to be projected upon it. I analyze conservative discourses around the Aurat March to demonstrate how right-wing detractors attempt to fill the empty signifier with morally charged content that disrupts the solidaric bonds holding together the Aurat March coalition. Finally, I explain how Aurat March organizers attempt to restore the openness of their signifier and the solidarity at the heart of their movement.