Uncertainty dogs the global digital market – Financial Times
Uncertainty dogs the global digital market Financial Times
Month: February 2024
Quantifying uncertainty in future sea level projections downscaled from CMIP5 global climate models
Abstract
Sea level projections for the future indicate a likely increase, raising concerns in the community due to its detrimental consequences. It has been reported by several researchers that there is considerable uncertainty in the future climate projections of Global Climate Models (GCMs), the primary tools for projecting future climate. In this study, the support vector machine (SVM) was employed to downscale sea level projections for the future from the projections of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) GCMs. Quantile regression was employed to examine the predictors’ uncertainty, and it was found that sea surface salinity (halosteric component of sea level change) is the highly uncertain variable among the three predictors, followed by sea surface temperature and mean sea level pressure. The uncertainty associated with downscaled future sea level projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, stemming from GCM structure, was investigated using Normal distribution and non-parametric kernel density estimation. Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test was performed to assess the goodness of fit and found that both normal distribution and kernel density estimation satisfactorily represent the probability density function (PDF) of sea level projections for the future. The uncertainty bounds in the sea level projections under both RCPs were estimated using the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap algorithm and found that the lower and upper bounds of sea level projection during December 2050 are 0.529 m and 0.604 m under RCP 4.5 and 0.535 m and 0.700 m under RCP 8.5. Results of the study revealed that uncertainty is comparatively high under RCP 8.5.
The persuasive effects of social cues and source effects on misinformation susceptibility
Abstract
Although misinformation exposure takes place within a social context, significant conclusions have been drawn about misinformation susceptibility through studies that largely examine judgements in a social vacuum. Bridging the gap between social influence research and the cognitive science of misinformation, we examine the mechanisms through which social context impacts misinformation susceptibility across 5 experiments (N = 20,477). We find that social cues only impact individual judgements when they influence perceptions of wider social consensus, and that source similarity only biases news consumers when the source is high in credibility. Specifically, high and low engagement cues (‘likes’) reduced misinformation susceptibility relative to a control, and endorsement cues increased susceptibility, but discrediting cues had no impact. Furthermore, political ingroup sources increased susceptibility if the source was high in credibility, but political outgroup sources had no effect relative to a control. This work highlights the importance of studying cognitive processes within a social context, as judgements of (mis)information change when embedded in the social world. These findings further underscore the need for multifaceted interventions that take account of the social context in which false information is processed to effectively mitigate the impact of misinformation on the public.
The persuasive effects of social cues and source effects on misinformation susceptibility
Abstract
Although misinformation exposure takes place within a social context, significant conclusions have been drawn about misinformation susceptibility through studies that largely examine judgements in a social vacuum. Bridging the gap between social influence research and the cognitive science of misinformation, we examine the mechanisms through which social context impacts misinformation susceptibility across 5 experiments (N = 20,477). We find that social cues only impact individual judgements when they influence perceptions of wider social consensus, and that source similarity only biases news consumers when the source is high in credibility. Specifically, high and low engagement cues (‘likes’) reduced misinformation susceptibility relative to a control, and endorsement cues increased susceptibility, but discrediting cues had no impact. Furthermore, political ingroup sources increased susceptibility if the source was high in credibility, but political outgroup sources had no effect relative to a control. This work highlights the importance of studying cognitive processes within a social context, as judgements of (mis)information change when embedded in the social world. These findings further underscore the need for multifaceted interventions that take account of the social context in which false information is processed to effectively mitigate the impact of misinformation on the public.
Naive skepticism scale: development and validation tests applied to the chilean population
Abstract
Background
Skepticism has traditionally been associated with critical thinking. However, philosophy has proposed a particular type of skepticism, termed naive skepticism, which may increase susceptibility to misinformation, especially when contrasting information from official sources. While some scales propose to measure skepticism, they are scarce and only measure specific topics; thus, new instruments are needed to assess this construct.
Objective
This study aimed to develop a scale to measure naive skepticism in the adult population.
Method
The study involved 446 individuals from the adult population. Subjects were randomly selected for either the pilot study (phase 2; n = 126) or the validity-testing study (phase 3; n = 320). Parallel analyses and exploratory structural equation modelling were conducted to assess the internal structure of the test. Scale reliability was estimated using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega coefficients Finally, a multigroup confirmatory factor analysis was performed to assess invariance, and a Set- Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling was applied to estimate evidence of validity based on associations with other variables.
Results
The naive skepticism scale provided adequate levels of reliability (ω > 0.8), evidence of validity based on the internal structure of the test (CFI = 0.966; TLI = 0.951; RMSEA = 0.079), gender invariance, and a moderate inverse effect on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines.
Conclusions
The newly developed naive skepticism scale showed acceptable psychometric properties in an adult population, thus enabling the assessment of naive skepticism in similar demographics. This paper discusses the implications for the theoretical construct and possible limitations of the scale.
Naive skepticism scale: development and validation tests applied to the chilean population
Abstract
Background
Skepticism has traditionally been associated with critical thinking. However, philosophy has proposed a particular type of skepticism, termed naive skepticism, which may increase susceptibility to misinformation, especially when contrasting information from official sources. While some scales propose to measure skepticism, they are scarce and only measure specific topics; thus, new instruments are needed to assess this construct.
Objective
This study aimed to develop a scale to measure naive skepticism in the adult population.
Method
The study involved 446 individuals from the adult population. Subjects were randomly selected for either the pilot study (phase 2; n = 126) or the validity-testing study (phase 3; n = 320). Parallel analyses and exploratory structural equation modelling were conducted to assess the internal structure of the test. Scale reliability was estimated using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega coefficients Finally, a multigroup confirmatory factor analysis was performed to assess invariance, and a Set- Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling was applied to estimate evidence of validity based on associations with other variables.
Results
The naive skepticism scale provided adequate levels of reliability (ω > 0.8), evidence of validity based on the internal structure of the test (CFI = 0.966; TLI = 0.951; RMSEA = 0.079), gender invariance, and a moderate inverse effect on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines.
Conclusions
The newly developed naive skepticism scale showed acceptable psychometric properties in an adult population, thus enabling the assessment of naive skepticism in similar demographics. This paper discusses the implications for the theoretical construct and possible limitations of the scale.
Beliefs Matter: Local Climate Concerns and Industrial Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States
Abstract
Industrial emissions of greenhouse gases are significant contributors to climate change, which poses a grave threat to social and economic systems. Our understanding of what might drive firms to reduce their emissions of these gases, however, is incomplete, and it is not clear that the knowledge gained from other environmental issues will readily apply to these emissions. We argue and find that indicators of environmental injustice previously shown to relate to toxic pollutants, for example, are poor predictors of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, we show that the degree of belief in and concern about climate change in a local community is a significant predictor of the facility’s rate of emission improvements. Furthermore, we find that beliefs at both the facility and headquarter communities influence emission reduction, and that those effects are substitutes for each other.
Beliefs Matter: Local Climate Concerns and Industrial Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States
Abstract
Industrial emissions of greenhouse gases are significant contributors to climate change, which poses a grave threat to social and economic systems. Our understanding of what might drive firms to reduce their emissions of these gases, however, is incomplete, and it is not clear that the knowledge gained from other environmental issues will readily apply to these emissions. We argue and find that indicators of environmental injustice previously shown to relate to toxic pollutants, for example, are poor predictors of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, we show that the degree of belief in and concern about climate change in a local community is a significant predictor of the facility’s rate of emission improvements. Furthermore, we find that beliefs at both the facility and headquarter communities influence emission reduction, and that those effects are substitutes for each other.