Month: February 2024
The EU’s discourse coherence and its relationship with China: a new normative actor?
Abstract
This article examines the role of the European Union (EU) as a global actor and its relationship with China. Within the context of the current European discourse, the study delves into the EU’s role as a normative actor and the increasing challenges it faces in its interactions with China. Consequently, the article describes how, in specific facets of this relationship, the EU, through its inconsistencies in discourse, engenders a potential perception of ambivalence and vulnerability on the international stage. Therefore, the argument put forth posits that the EU’s aspiration to propagate liberal norms and principles has rendered the formulation of an appropriate foreign policy towards China difficult, as manifested by the inconsistent rhetoric employed by its highest-ranking representatives. This discord reflects the intricate task of balancing the interests of the diverse member states, thereby unveiling a fragmented EU grappling with the China predicament while attempting to sustain its normative endeavors. By employing a concept-theoretical approach, the analysis results contribute to a novel comprehension of how the EU adapts its position as a global actor in response to the adversarial nature of China, emphasizing points of discursive incongruities and interest for future research in EU-China partnerships.
Curriculum wars and youth political education in the UK and Australia—a narrative review
Abstract
This paper discusses the questions at the heart of the tussle between different types of knowledge within curricula that we conceptualise as ‘curriculum wars’. Across the world, we see increasing instances of young people’s radicalization around axes of race, religion, and gender. Viewing these developments side by side throws into question the various local, national, and global issues shaping young people’s political education and action in liberal democracies experiencing ongoing shift away from liberal values. Through a comprehensive narrative review, we provide an overview of key themes that have been explored in recent research on curriculum, youth political education, and democracy in England and Australia. We find that young peoples’ shift away from traditional electoral (big ‘P’) politics focussed on wider socio-economic issues to an individualised (small ‘p’) politics focussed on personal experiences poses serious curricular challenges—around content and modes of political education. Young peoples’ unparalleled access to online information and digital affordances creates further need to include digital and media education within the political education curriculum. This educational challenge could prospectively be met by a curriculum that is collaborative, action-research and activist based. Such a curriculum addresses issues relevant to young people’s lived realities including topics deemed ‘controversial’ for classrooms. Such an approach requires a perspectival shift away from youth as subjects of curricular reform to youth as collaborators and knowledge workers. We argue that critical literacy offers a practical and theoretical scaffold to conceptualise transformative and progressive youth political education and political action by emphasizing the need for socially justice focussed spaces for learning, reflection and action within schools and in communities.
Relationship between systematic temperature bias and East Asian winter monsoon in CORDEX East Asia phase II experiments
Abstract
This study analyzed systematic biases in surface air temperature (SAT) within Far East Asia during the boreal winter using the SNURCM and WRF regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia phase II. The SAT biases were examined in relation to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The models consistently simulated lower winter temperatures over East Asia, particularly in the Manchuria (MC) region, compared to the observation, showing a positive correlation with the EAWM. This study assessed the models' ability to capture EAWM variability and revealed relationships between SAT biases and discrepancies in low-level and near-surface EAWM conditions. The findings emphasized the value of analyzing extreme monsoon years, with the RCMs exhibiting larger cold SAT biases during strong EAWM years. Systematic biases in sea-level pressure contrast and lower-level winds over the MC region were evident during years with a robust monsoon. The overestimation of low-level winds during strong EAWM years contributed to increased cold advection, affecting the MC region. These systematic errors are influenced by the internal factors of the model, such as the physics parameterization schemes, rather than large-scale circulation forced by the reanalysis data (perfect boundary condition). These results provide insights for model improvements, understanding EAWM dynamics, and call for investigation of processes in the planetary boundary layer and coupled air-sea interaction.
Comparison of conventional and machine learning methods for bias correcting CMIP6 rainfall and temperature in Nigeria
Abstract
This research assesses the efficacy of thirteen bias correction methods, including traditional and machine learning-based approaches, in downscaling four chosen GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) in Nigeria. The 0.5° resolution gridded rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmx), and minimum temperature (Tmn) of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1975 − 2014 was used as the reference. The Compromise Programming Index (CPI) was used to assess the performance of bias correction methods based on three statistical metrics. The optimal bias-correction technique was employed to rectify bias to project the spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, Tmx, and Tmn over Nigeria for two distinct future timeframes: the near future (2021–2059) and the distant future (2060–2099). The study's findings indicate that the Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique better corrects the bias of all three climate variables for the chosen GCMs. The CPI of RF for rainfall, Tmx, and Tmn were 0.62, 0.0, and 0.0, followed by the Power Transformation approach with CPI of 0.74, 0.36, and 0.29, respectively. The geographic distribution of rainfall and temperatures significantly improved compared to the original GCMs using RF. The mean bias-corrected projections from the multimodel ensemble of the GCMs indicated a rainfall increase in the near future, particularly in the north by 2.7–12.7%, while a reduction in the south in the far future by -3.3% to -10% for different SSPs. The temperature projections indicated a rise in the Tmx and Tm from 0.71 °C and 0.63 °C for SSP126 to 2.71 °C and 3.13 °C for SSP585. This work highlights the significance of comparing bias correction approaches to determine the most suitable approach for adjusting biases in GCM estimations for climate change research.
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
Abstract
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
Assessment of the land use/land cover and climate change impact on the hydrological regime of the Kulsi River catchment, Northeast India
Abstract
The present study has shown the changes in climatic variables and land use/land cover to observe the long-term changes in the hydrological characteristics of the Kulsi River. Mann–Kendall test, Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices Index, t tests, and Analysis of variation were used to analyze the change and variation. The Mann–Kendall test shows a significant declining trend of rainfall at Chamaria (− 26.76 mm/year) annually, the seasonally significant declining trend was noticed in the winter season at the rate of (− 1.47 mm/year) at Ukium, whereas Chamaria showed a declining trend of rainfall in the post-monsoon season at the rate of (− 5.62 mm/year). Among all stations, maximum temperature showed a significant increasing trend at the rate of (0.03 °C/year) at Chaygaon, while minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend at the rate of (0.02 °C/year) at Ukium and Chamaria, respectively. Consecutive dry days have shown significant positive trends at the rate of (0.85 days/year), (0.67 days/year) and (1.35 days/year) at Chaygaon, Ukium, and Chamaria. The areas under forest cover and water body have decreased, whereas cropland and transition areas have increased. In the case of the hydrological variables, only the water level has shown significant annual variation (p value is 0.002). However, both water level and discharge show seasonal variation significantly. The water level has shown a significant negative relation with maximum temperature (R and p values are − 0.78 and 0.00 respectively) and a significant positive relation with forest cover (R and p values are 0.6 and 0.01 respectively). On the other hand, water discharge has a significant positive relation with annual rainfall (R and p values are 0.5 and 0.03, respectively). The findings of the research show that increasing maximum temperature and decreasing forest cover are responsible for the decline of water level in the Kulsi River. Whereas, a decrease in rainfall leads to a decrease in discharge and vice versa. The findings of the present research will be helpful to the policymakers and government in preparing a suitable sustainable river management plan to address the declining water resources to mitigate water scarcity issues.
Compounding effects of changing sea level and rainfall regimes on pluvial flooding in New York City
Abstract
Coastal urban areas like New York City (NYC) are more vulnerable to urban pluvial flooding particularly because the rapid runoff from extreme rainfall events can be further compounded by the co-occurrence of high sea-level conditions either from tide or storm surge leading to compound flooding events. Present-day urban pluvial flooding is a significant challenge for NYC and this challenge is expected to become more severe with the greater frequency and intensity of storms and sea-level rise (SLR) in the future. In this study, we advance NYC’s assessment of present and future exposure to urban pluvial flooding through simulating various storm scenarios using a citywide hydrologic and hydraulic model. This is the first citywide analysis using NYC’s drainage models focusing on rainfall-induced flooding. We showed that the city’s stormwater system is highly vulnerable to high-intensity short-duration “cloudburst” events, with the extent and volume of flooding being the largest during these events. We further showed that rainfall events coupled with higher sea-level conditions, either from SLR or storm surge, could significantly increase the volume and extent of flooding in the city. We also assessed flood exposure in terms of the number of buildings and length of roads exposed to flooding as well as the number of the affected population. This study informs NYC’s residents of their current and future flood risk and enables the development of tailored solutions to manage increasing flood risk in the city.