Wrongful Rational Persuasion Online

Abstract

In this article, we argue that rational persuasion can be a pro tanto wrong and that online platforms possess features that are especially conducive to this wrong. We begin by setting out an account of rational persuasion. This consists of four jointly sufficient conditions for rational persuasion and is intended to capture the core, uncontroversial cases of such persuasion. We then discuss a series of wrong-making features which are present in methods of influence commonly thought of as pro tanto wrong, such as manipulation and paternalism. It is next shown that these wrong-making features are also present in a range of cases that are, by the jointly sufficient conditions already established, rational persuasion, and so some forms of rational persuasion are pro tanto wrong, including in some ways that have not previously been remarked upon. Finally, we demonstrate that online settings possess a number of features that are especially conducive to wrongful rational persuasion.

Wrongful Rational Persuasion Online

Abstract

In this article, we argue that rational persuasion can be a pro tanto wrong and that online platforms possess features that are especially conducive to this wrong. We begin by setting out an account of rational persuasion. This consists of four jointly sufficient conditions for rational persuasion and is intended to capture the core, uncontroversial cases of such persuasion. We then discuss a series of wrong-making features which are present in methods of influence commonly thought of as pro tanto wrong, such as manipulation and paternalism. It is next shown that these wrong-making features are also present in a range of cases that are, by the jointly sufficient conditions already established, rational persuasion, and so some forms of rational persuasion are pro tanto wrong, including in some ways that have not previously been remarked upon. Finally, we demonstrate that online settings possess a number of features that are especially conducive to wrongful rational persuasion.

Municipal perspectives on managed retreat and flood mitigation: A case analysis of Merritt, Canada after the 2021 British Columbia flood disaster

Abstract

In response to the catastrophic flooding that occurred in British Columbia, Canada in November 2021, the City of Merritt is facing a difficult decision about whether to rebuild or not. The developing situation in Merritt provided a unique opportunity to explore the different types of adaptations (i.e., investments in climate resilient infrastructure, rebuilding, construction of structural mitigation, zoning, and buyouts) considered by policymakers in advance of official municipal decisions. Through qualitative mixed methods (e.g., interviews, open houses, town council meetings), the study explored preliminary discussions among decision makers surrounding long term risk reduction options including rebuild and retreat strategies, perceptions of flood risk, recovery challenges faced by small-scale municipalities, the development of the community’s flood mitigation plan, and recommendations for post-disaster transitional supports. The results indicated that communities in the post-disaster recovery phase are considering the use of buyouts as a risk reduction tool amongst broader flood mitigation strategies, however policy constraints and a lack of funding are impeding the implementation of a flood mitigation plan that includes buyouts. The findings suggest that decisions about post disaster recovery are often independent of broader municipal climate change adaptation plans instead focusing on short-term risk reduction mechanisms. Additionally, transitional supports including interim housing need to be accounted for in recovery planning. Governments in Canada can capitalize on the policy windows during the post-disaster recovery stage and learn from municipalities about the challenges and opportunities in the design and implementation of flood mitigation plans that can help to improve disaster policy.

Verbal Repertoires and Contextual Factors in Cultural Change

Abstract

This article provides an overview of cultural environmental factors that influence interactions between organized cultural groups and the recipients of their aggregate outcome. The discussion highlights the elaborated account of metacontingency with the primary focus on ways this perspective offers points of entry to alter contextual factors and change cultural practices. The concepts of metacontingency, macrobehavior, macrocontingency, and cultural milieu are emphasized in the behavior scientific analysis of cultural practices. In this process, interactions of verbally sophisticated cultural groups, the aggregate outcome, and their influence on the cultural environment will be examined. Moreover, the mediating role of verbal repertoires of individuals will be discussed.

Verbal Repertoires and Contextual Factors in Cultural Change

Abstract

This article provides an overview of cultural environmental factors that influence interactions between organized cultural groups and the recipients of their aggregate outcome. The discussion highlights the elaborated account of metacontingency with the primary focus on ways this perspective offers points of entry to alter contextual factors and change cultural practices. The concepts of metacontingency, macrobehavior, macrocontingency, and cultural milieu are emphasized in the behavior scientific analysis of cultural practices. In this process, interactions of verbally sophisticated cultural groups, the aggregate outcome, and their influence on the cultural environment will be examined. Moreover, the mediating role of verbal repertoires of individuals will be discussed.

Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy

Abstract

The identification of agriculture and land use configurations that achieve net zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions is critical to inform appropriate land use and food policy, yet national NZ targets lack consistent definitions. Here, 3000 randomised scenarios projecting future agricultural production and compatible land use combinations in Ireland were screened using ten NZ definitions. When aggregating carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions using various methods, 1–85% of scenarios met NZ criteria. Despite considerable variation, common actions emerged across definitions, including high rates of afforestation, organic soil re-wetting, and cattle destocking. Ambitious technical abatement of agricultural emissions moderated, but could not substitute, these actions. With abatement, 95th percentile milk output varied from 11–91% of 2021 output, but was associated with reductions of up to 98% in suckler-beef production, and a 47–387% increase in forest cover. Achieving NZ will thus require transformation of Ireland’s land sector. Lagging land use change effects require urgent action, but sustaining a just transition will require visioning of future NZ land use combinations supporting a sustainable and resilient food system, alongside an expanding circular bioeconomy. We provide new insight into the sensitivity of such visioning to NZ definitions, pointing to an urgent need for international consensus on the accounting of methane emissions in NZ targets.

Downscaling atmospheric emission inventories with “top–down” approach: the support of the literature in choosing proxy variables

Abstract

The management and improvement of air quality are global challenges aimed at protecting human health and environmental resources. For this purpose, in addition to legislative and scientific indications, numerous tools are available: measurement methods and tools for estimating and forecasting. As a collection of data presenting an emission of a pollutant (to air), emission inventories support the knowledge of sources impacting air quality by estimating atmospheric emissions within a specific (wide or limited) reference area. There are several methodological approaches for their definition, which can be classified into bottom–up or top–down methods. This paper aims to review the methodological approaches described in the literature that apply the top–down approach for the disaggregation of atmospheric emissions with high spatial and temporal resolution. The proxy variables used to apply this approach are identified, as well as the spatial and temporal resolution obtained by the authors. The results show that population density and land use are the most common parameters with respect to most of the emission sources and for numerous atmospheric pollutants. The spatial resolution of the disaggregation described in the literature varies from a few hundred metres to several kilometres, in relation to the territorial extension of the study areas. The results of the review help support the selection of the best and most popular proxy variables used to scale emissions inventories.

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of vegetation cover variations in the Chengdu-Chongqing region of China under the background of rapid urbanization

Abstract

The research on the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of ecosystems in rapidly urbanizing regions has always been a topic of widespread concern. As the fourth pole of China’s economic development, the research on the Chengdu-Chongqing region has reference significance for the urbanization process of developing countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa.The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been widely applied in studies of plant and ecosystem changes. Based on MODIS NDVI data from 2001 to 2020 and meteorological data of the same period, this study reveals the evolution of NDVI in the Chengdu-Chongqing region from three aspects: the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of NDVI, the prediction of future trends in vegetation coverage, and the response of vegetation to climate change and human activities. During the period of plant growth, the mean NDVI achieved a value of 0.78, and the vegetation coverage rate is increasing year by year. According to the Hurst index, the future NDVI in Chengdu-Chongqing region will tend to decrease, and its trend is opposite to that of the past period of time. The Chengdu-Chongqing region vegetation positively affected by human activities is greater than those negatively affected, and in terms of vegetation degradation, the impact of human activities is greater than climate change.

Exploring Climate Variables and Drought Patterns: A Comprehensive Trend Analysis and Evaluation of Beas Basin in Western Himalaya

Abstract

The complex topography of the Himalayan region makes it difficult to analyze its climatic variables over the region. The study has been carried out to identify the trends in climate variables and drought analysis over the Beas River basin in the western Himalayas. To understand the impact of changing climate on the Beas River basin, five downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were used, namely BNU-ESM, Can-ESM2, CNRM CM5, MPI-ESM MR, and MPI-ESM LR. These GCMs were obtained for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: 4.5, which represents the normal scenario, and 8.5, which represents the most extreme scenario for anticipated concentrations of carbon and greenhouse gases. The multi-model ensemble (MME) of these 5 GCMs were used to project rainfall and temperature. Further Innovative Trends Analysis (ITA) and modified Mann–Kendell (mMK) trend tests have been used for trend analysis at a 5% significance level. The drought pattern in the future timescale of the ensembled model is calculated using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for both RCPs. The ITA, Mann–Kendell, and Sen’s slope trends showed decreased precipitation under RCP 4.5 in the Manali region and showed an increasing trend for the remaining locations under both scenarios. Furthermore, SPI values showed frequent droughts under both RCPs. The study outcomes will serve as a scientific foundation for the sustainability of water resources and agricultural output in arid inland regions vulnerable to changing climate.