Infectious eye disease in the 21st century—an overview

Abstract

Infectious diseases affecting the eye often cause unilateral or asymmetric visual loss in children and people of working age. This group of conditions includes viral, bacterial, fungal and parasitic diseases, both common and rare presentations which, in aggregate, may account for a significant portion of the global visual burden. Diagnosis is frequently challenging even in specialist centres, and many disease presentations are highly regional. In an age of globalisation, an understanding of the various modes of transmission and the geographic distribution of infections can be instructive to clinicians. The impact of eye infections on global disability is currently not sufficiently captured in global prevalence studies on visual impairment and blindness, which focus on bilateral disease in the over-50s. Moreover, in many cases it is hard to differentiate between infectious and immune-mediated diseases. Since infectious eye diseases can be preventable and frequently affect younger people, we argue that in future prevalence studies they should be considered as a separate category, including estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a measure of overall disease burden. Numbers of ocular infections are uniquely affected by outbreaks as well as endemic transmission, and their control frequently relies on collaborative partnerships that go well beyond the remit of ophthalmology, encompassing domains as various as vaccination, antibiotic development, individual healthcare, vector control, mass drug administration, food supplementation, environmental and food hygiene, epidemiological mapping, and many more. Moreover, the anticipated impacts of global warming, conflict, food poverty, urbanisation and environmental degradation are likely to magnify their importance. While remote telemedicine can be a useful aide in the diagnosis of these conditions in resource-poor areas, enhanced global reporting networks and artificial intelligence systems may ultimately be required for disease surveillance and monitoring.

Infectious eye disease in the 21st century—an overview

Abstract

Infectious diseases affecting the eye often cause unilateral or asymmetric visual loss in children and people of working age. This group of conditions includes viral, bacterial, fungal and parasitic diseases, both common and rare presentations which, in aggregate, may account for a significant portion of the global visual burden. Diagnosis is frequently challenging even in specialist centres, and many disease presentations are highly regional. In an age of globalisation, an understanding of the various modes of transmission and the geographic distribution of infections can be instructive to clinicians. The impact of eye infections on global disability is currently not sufficiently captured in global prevalence studies on visual impairment and blindness, which focus on bilateral disease in the over-50s. Moreover, in many cases it is hard to differentiate between infectious and immune-mediated diseases. Since infectious eye diseases can be preventable and frequently affect younger people, we argue that in future prevalence studies they should be considered as a separate category, including estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a measure of overall disease burden. Numbers of ocular infections are uniquely affected by outbreaks as well as endemic transmission, and their control frequently relies on collaborative partnerships that go well beyond the remit of ophthalmology, encompassing domains as various as vaccination, antibiotic development, individual healthcare, vector control, mass drug administration, food supplementation, environmental and food hygiene, epidemiological mapping, and many more. Moreover, the anticipated impacts of global warming, conflict, food poverty, urbanisation and environmental degradation are likely to magnify their importance. While remote telemedicine can be a useful aide in the diagnosis of these conditions in resource-poor areas, enhanced global reporting networks and artificial intelligence systems may ultimately be required for disease surveillance and monitoring.

Potential impacts of climate change on renewable energy in Egypt

Abstract

The need for renewable energy sources is recently necessitated by attaining sustainability and climate change mitigation. Accordingly, the use of renewable energy sources has been growing rapidly during the last two decades. Yet, the potentials of renewable energy sources are generally influenced by several climatic factors that either determine the source of energy such as wind speed in the case of wind power or affect the performance of system such as the reduction in solar PV power production due to temperature increase. This highlights the need for assessing climate change impacts on renewable energy sources in the future to ensure their reliability and sustainability.

This paper is intended to assess impacts of climate change on wind and solar potential energy in Egypt by the year 2065 under RCP 8.5 scenario. For this purpose, a GIS-based methodology of three main steps was applied. The results revealed that solar energy potential in Egypt is expected to be relatively less vulnerable to climate change compared to wind energy. In this respect, it was found that while wind energy potential was estimated to range ± 12%. By the year 2065 under RCP 8.5 scenario, PV module power is expected to decrease by about 1.3% on average. Such assessment can assist in developing more sustainable and flexible renewable energy policy in Egypt.

Estimating Soil Heat Flux in Jordan Based on ERA5 Parameters and NCEP/NCAR Energy Outputs: Definite Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Using PCA

Abstract

Internal variability changes in soil surface temperature and reflective radiation drove climate to change and vice versa over all time scales. This study investigates the heat flux components and the climate variables that drive the change in surface soil temperature down to 15.0 cm. We analyze the correlations of energy and radiation components to climate variables by coding principle component analysis (PCA) and finding the radiative forcing of atmosphere-energy-climate-soil continuum systems using datasets derived from ERA5 and NCEP/NCAR projections. The vectors contributing to the continuum were the shortwave, net solar radiation, and sensible flux are the main drivers. The average 72-year shortwave in the study locations was − 190.63 W/m2. Because of the upwelling radiation to the atmosphere, the longwave flux did not exceed the shortwave over the study’s location. The sensible heat flux was the lowest in the northwestern highlands (approximately 32 Watt/m2) and the highest range during summer was 150–180 Watt/m2 over the country. This variability in net radiation partitioning led to changes in surface warming and the responding climate. This study found that the average monthly soil surface temperature bound was 10–20 °C from November to March at all locations except for Amman and Ruwaished. The calculated soil heat storage is positive all year in the Dead Sea with an annual average of 76.53 W/m2. The lowest storage heat was in Amman with an annual average of − 44.42 W/m2. The anomalies of annual ERA5 reanalysis of main climate contributors extended from (− 5.46 to + 5.53 °C), (− 5.66 to + 4.36 °C), (− 1.3 to 2.87 mm/day), and around (− 25.97% to a maximum of 20.99%) for maximum and minimum near-surface air temperatures, daily precipitation, and relative humidity, respectively. The long-term mean evaporation was very low approximately − 1.85 × 10–7 mm. Mean monthly wind speed illustrates low-frequency variability by − 0.06 m/s. PCA represented the correlation coefficients of the climate variables that affected soil temperature the most: near-surface air temperature, maximum, and minimum (> 0.95). Soil–water content, precipitation, and humidity played a secondary negative role to a certain extent by regulating and slowing down the soil heat transfer − 61, − 64, and − 91%, respectively. This study enhances the understanding of energy partitioning and incorporates satellite products and climate simulations to recognize key influencing factors of energy changes and climate footprints toward soil heat flux that affect the biosphere, humans, and energy use.

The relationship between spatial configuration of urban parks and neighbourhood cooling in a humid subtropical city

Abstract

Context

Urban parks are essential for maintaining aesthetics within cities and keeping their its energy balance by helping mitigate the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect through controlling ambient and land surface temperature (LST).

Objectives

To investigate the impact of cooling in terms of distance by variously configured urban parks of a humid subtropical city, using landscape metrics and open-source data.

Methods

Land use (LU) was obtained through maximum likelihood classification of 3 m resolution aerial RGB-NIR imagery supported by ground control points and park boundaries collected during field survey. LST at matching resolution was obtained through downscaling of Landsat-8 LST at 30/100m resolution, calculated with the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). Landscape metrics for patches of parks were calculated using landscapemetrics R library and related to neighbourhood distances over built-up land use (LU).

Results

Urban parks with homogenous cores and less complex shape provide distinctly higher cooling of neighbouring built-up LU of circa 2.55 °C over the distance of 18 m from park boundaries. Four metrics: contiguity index (CONTIG), core area index (CAI), fractal dimension index (FRAC) and perimeter-area ratio (PARA) represent significant relationship between spatial configuration of parks and their cooling distance. No cooling capacity of parks regardless of their shape and core was observed beyond the distance of 18 m, which remained constant with small fluctuations in the range of 0.5 °C up to the distance of 600 m.

Conclusions

The study concludes that cooling distance of urban parks in their neighbourhood extends up to 18 m, which is shorter than suggested by other studies.

Social corrections act as a double-edged sword by reducing the perceived accuracy of false and real news in the UK, Germany, and Italy

Abstract

Corrective or refutational posts from ordinary users on social media have the potential to improve the online information ecosystem. While initial evidence of these social corrections is promising, a better understanding of the effects across different topics, formats, and audiences is needed. In three pre-registered experiments (N = 1944 UK, N = 2467 Italy, N = 2210 Germany) where respondents completed a social media post assessment task with false and true news posts on various topics (e.g., health, climate change, technology), we find that social corrections reduce perceived accuracy of and engagement with false news posts. We also find that social corrections that flag true news as false decrease perceived accuracy of and engagement with true news posts. We did not find evidence to support moderation of these effects by correction strength, anti-expert sentiments, cognitive reflection capacities, or susceptibility to social influence. While social corrections can be effective for false news, they may also undermine belief in true news.

Proceed with Caution: Social Acceptability of Forestry Practices in Puerto Rico among Members of Local Environmental Organizations, Academia and Professional Associations

Abstract

Social acceptability of forestry practices plays a key role in defining sustainable forestry policies and strategies. In this study an online survey was distributed among members of environmental, non-governmental, professional, and academic organizations to assess the acceptability of forestry practices in Puerto Rico among members of civic society interested in environmental management issues. Participants were asked about their perception of forest uses, their preference of tree harvesting technologies, methods that may apply in small scale wood production settings, and trust in organizations providing forest information. We also inquired about attitudes towards economic activity in forests and the impact of such activity on recreation and biodiversity. The results show that even though participants do not place a high priority on economic development through forestry activities, acceptance of forest management for wood harvesting will be possible by considering adherence to particular forestry technologies and methods to safeguard current recreation activities and biodiversity conservation. Social acceptability information would be worthwhile when seeking consensus among a broader group of local stakeholders. As a next step we suggest the creation of a council constituted by diverse forestry sector stakeholders that would engage in a strategic planning exercise to delineate a clear road map that can guide short and long-term sustainable forest management, including wood industry development.

Proceed with Caution: Social Acceptability of Forestry Practices in Puerto Rico among Members of Local Environmental Organizations, Academia and Professional Associations

Abstract

Social acceptability of forestry practices plays a key role in defining sustainable forestry policies and strategies. In this study an online survey was distributed among members of environmental, non-governmental, professional, and academic organizations to assess the acceptability of forestry practices in Puerto Rico among members of civic society interested in environmental management issues. Participants were asked about their perception of forest uses, their preference of tree harvesting technologies, methods that may apply in small scale wood production settings, and trust in organizations providing forest information. We also inquired about attitudes towards economic activity in forests and the impact of such activity on recreation and biodiversity. The results show that even though participants do not place a high priority on economic development through forestry activities, acceptance of forest management for wood harvesting will be possible by considering adherence to particular forestry technologies and methods to safeguard current recreation activities and biodiversity conservation. Social acceptability information would be worthwhile when seeking consensus among a broader group of local stakeholders. As a next step we suggest the creation of a council constituted by diverse forestry sector stakeholders that would engage in a strategic planning exercise to delineate a clear road map that can guide short and long-term sustainable forest management, including wood industry development.

Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa

Abstract

Background

Malaria is one of the major vector-borne diseases most sensitive to climatic change in West Africa. The prevention and reduction of malaria are very difficult in Benin due to poverty, economic insatiability and the non control of environmental determinants. This study aims to develop an intelligent outbreak malaria early warning model driven by monthly time series climatic variables in the northern part of Benin.

Methods

Climate data from nine rain gauge stations and malaria incidence data from 2009 to 2021 were extracted from the National Meteorological Agency (METEO) and the Ministry of Health of Benin, respectively. Projected relative humidity and temperature were obtained from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) simulations of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4).

A structural equation model was employed to determine the effects of climatic variables on malaria incidence. We developed an intelligent malaria early warning model to predict the prevalence of malaria using machine learning by applying three machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (LiR), support vector machine (SVM), and negative binomial regression (NBiR).

Results

Two ecological factors such as factor 1 (related to average mean relative humidity, average maximum relative humidity, and average maximal temperature) and factor 2 (related to average minimal temperature) affect the incidence of malaria. Support vector machine regression is the best-performing algorithm, predicting 82% of malaria incidence in the northern part of Benin.

The projection reveals an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the studied period.

Conclusion

These results reveal that the northern part of Benin is at high risk of malaria, and specific malaria control programs are urged to reduce the risk of malaria.

Not a Blank Slate: The Role of Big Tech in Misinformation and Radicalization

Abstract

This paper argues that section 230 of the Communications Decency Act should not protect tech companies for their role in behavioral advertising and designing and using algorithms that ensure the spread of dangerous content, including ISIS and far right-wing recruiting videos, propaganda, and other harmful misinformation. Under the broad reading of 230, I argue that tech companies are serving two roles and getting immunity for both: they provide the blank medium, and they propel ideologically bundled snippets of information to those most vulnerable to absorbing the radical viewpoints in them. These two roles are distinct, and the second role has little to do with free speech or creating a level playing field for public discourse. Search engines, and social media like TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, Snap, Reddit, and YouTube are not blank slates for posting content, they are ecosystems with complex designs. Their business plans and algorithms lead to a “rabbit-hole effect” that poses danger. There are public policy approaches that could reduce harm and offer solutions compatible with free speech and a narrower 230 immunity.